When Joe Cairo speaks, Republicans throughout New York State — and, increasingly, Republicans throughout the nation — listen.
Cairo is chair of the Nassau County Republican organization, a once-powerful suburban New York community that he has resurrected as a GOP powerhouse.
For many years, Nassau County and California's Orange County were the rock-ribbed conservative Republican enclaves that helped elect several GOP presidents.
Like most suburbs, Nassau County had been trending Democrat, as ethnic voters from New York City moved in but kept voting for their immigrant-friendly party.
Now Cairo faces a battle in New York's 3rd Congressional District to elect his hand-picked candidate, Mazi Pilip, to replace disgraced Rep. George Santos in a special election set for Tuesday.
Pilip is a Nassau County legislator who Cairo selected, hailing her as the "right person at the right time for the right job."
"She's a woman who is educated, active in the community, active in Jewish causes, a former IDF [Israeli Defense Forces] paratrooper," Cairo told Newsmax. "Her sister is a police officer in Israel; her nephews are in the IDF."
Pilip should do well in a district that spans from northern Queens County into Long Island's tony North Shore, an area with a large Jewish community.
Still, the race is an uphill battle.
The Democrats' nominee is former Rep. Tom Suozzi, who represented the district before he ran for governor in 2022.
Suozzi lost that primary fight, but appears to remain popular in Nassau County, where he also served as county executive.
"Suozzi is a household word, but there are household words people don't like to say," Cairo said. "I'm not saying his name is a curse word, but we are letting people know why his name is well-known.
"Tom plays himself to be a moderate. He's not a moderate. Tom plays to the wind. He's distancing himself from Joe Biden now, but he voted with Joe Biden 100% of the time in Congress.
"He's distancing himself from AOC [New York's Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez] and the 'Squad,' but depending on which member you are talking about, he's voted 90 to 94% of the time with the Squad."
At a time when illegal immigration is already a powder-keg issue in Nassau County, Cairo said, "Tom Suozzi's name isn't that good" recalling that as county executive he encouraged illegal migrants to avoid federal ICE agents.
In 2022, Cairo helped elect four Long Island congressmen, all Republicans, in a New York state wave that sent a surprising 11 GOPers to the House.
Cairo said it's crucial to have a strong local, grass-roots organization with a focus on critical issues like crime and illegal immigration. It's a key reason that since 2021, Republicans have swept all four countywide offices including the county executive slot held now by the popular Bruce Blakeman.
Cairo's Republicans also took a majority in the Legislature and won control of the county's three major towns.
Now, Cairo appears to be working his magic again as a Emerson Poll completed in January showed Suozzi holding a small lead over Pilip, 45% to 42%.
With early voting starting this past weekend, Cairo believes Pilip is gaining momentum at the right time.
And then there's the Donald Trump question.
"He'll be the nominee," Cairo said. "He is extremely popular in most parts of the country and, as for his legal troubles, people think if he's convicted, it's because he got railroaded and didn't get a fair trial."
Cairo notes that Nassau County has more than 100,000 more registered Republicans than Democrats.
If Republicans can win big here, Trump can also win, Cairo said.
"So Trump will do just fine," Cairo said.
John Gizzi is chief political columnist and White House correspondent for Newsmax. For more of his reports, Go Here Now.
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