The big gains scored by the populist Alternative for Germany (AfD) party in two state elections Sunday sent shock waves to the ruling of the Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD) of politician Chancellor Olaf Scholz, which is by far one of the most significant supporters of Ukraine in its increasingly brutal war with Russia.
One of the three parties in the chancellor's ruling coalition even discussed an exit, which could bring down Scholz and force new national elections two years early.
Any change in the German government would be watched worldwide. With the exception of the U.S. and the U.K., Germany has had the most deliveries of supplies to Ukraine of any nation.
With near-final results in, the AfD scored 18.6% in the race for the state government of Hesse and 16% in Bavaria. Both were major increases over its performance in the last state elections in 2018 —13.1% in Hesse and 11.6% in Bavaria.
Because of the 10-year-old AfD's hardline opposition to illegal immigration, its Euroscepticism, and its calls for a negotiated ceasefire in the Russian-Ukraine war, neither the Christian Democratic Union of Germany (CDU) nor the Christian Social Union in Bavaria (CSU), which operates as the CDU's Bavarian-based sister party, will bring it into the governments it will head up in Hesse and Bavaria respectively.
In contrast, all three parties in Germany's ruling coalition — Scholz's (SDP), the environmentalist Green Party of Germany, and the Free Democratic Party (FDP) — lost support from their 2018 showing in the two state elections.
Coupled with the AfD gains, these results clearly resonated throughout Germany.
There was even some discussion of the FDP, which failed to make the 5% threshold required for seats in the state parliaments in both Hesse and Bavaria, withdrawing from the ruling coalition and possibly bringing down the Scholz government two years before the next national elections.
"If necessary the FDP needs to be ready to leave" the coalition, Thomas Kemmerich, head of the FDP in the eastern state of Thueringen, which is to hold its own election next year, told the German trade union publication Der Pioneer.
"This cannot be a taboo."
Martin Klingst, longtime correspondent for the German publication Der Zeit, and a best-selling author, told Newsmax that the major reasons for the AfD's gains at the expense of the ruling parties were "dissatisfaction with the current Traffic Light Coalition (so nicknamed for the official colors of the three parties—red, green, and yellow), especially its constant inner fighting on the public stage and its chaotic governing."
"As a matter of fact, the coalition has accomplished quite a lot, but in many cases only after a bitter fight."
Klingst added that "there is also dissatisfaction with the migration crisis"
"Per capita, Germany is currently one of the biggest recipients of refugees. If you look up the UNHCR (United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees) statistics, it's no. 4 in the world in hosting refugees and asylum seekers that fall under one of the protection categories with regard to the Geneva Refugee Convention. Germany comes right after Turkey — which has taken in mainly refugees from Syria and Iraq — then Iran — mainly refugees from Afghanistan — and Columbia — mainly refugees from Venezuela."
According to the latest INSA/YouGov poll, were German national elections to be held now, the CDU would top the race with 27%, followed by the AfD with 22%, and Scholz's SPD with 17%— just barely edging past the Greens with 14%.
John Gizzi is chief political columnist and White House correspondent for Newsmax. For more of his reports, Go Here Now.
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