A Green Government in Germany?

Since Sunday, Germany — and much of Europe — have been buzzing about the latest poll on national elections Germans will hold Sep. 26.

In results that have been variously dubbed "stunning" and "never-anticipated" by the punditocracy, the just-completed Kantar Research Group poll showed Germany’s Green Party placing first among likely voters nationwide with 28%.

Just as stunning was Kantar’s finding that outgoing Chancellor Angela Merkel’s CDU (conservative) Party, which has governed Germany and its predecessor-state West Germany for all but twenty years since 1949, placed second with 27%.

Further down, the same poll found the SPD (Social Democrats) at 13%, the nationalist AfD (Alternative for Germany) Party 10%, the libertarian FDP (Free Democrats) 9%, and Der Linke (the Left) — made up largely of former Communists — at 7%.

Most observers who spoke to Newsmax agreed that much of the dramatic rise of the Greens and decline of the CDU and its SPD coalition partner was due to the slow administration of vaccines for COVID-19.

In choosing its first-ever chancellor nominee, the Greens opted for Member of Parliament and party co-leader Annalene Baerbock. In sharp contrast to the rabid environmentalists who symbolized the Greens in the past, Baerbock, 40, hails from the party’s newer centrist wing.

Her tough rhetoric on Russia and China over human rights issues is not unlike that of the Biden administration in the U.S.  Echoing Biden and many national Democrat leaders, Baerbock calls climate change "the task of our time, the task of our generation" and calls for more regulations to advance the climate change agenda.

Also surprising is the strong performance in the poll of the AfD, which fell short of past performances in a number of recent state elections. Its hard line on illegal immigration may now be benefiting from still-lingering animosity toward Merkel and the CDU for their admission in 2015 of more than 1 million refugees from Syria into Germany.

At least one German pundit who spoke to Newsmax agreed that CDU twice made a tactical error in its selection of a leader to succeed Merkel and that the course it has taken may be fueling the AfD.

Earlier this year, by a margin of 53-to-47, the CDU executive committee chose Armin Laschet, state premier of North Rhine-Westphalia and a Merkel ally as party chairman over stalwart conservative and Merkel enemy Friedrich Merz.

Merz, CDU watchers agree, would have stopped the exodus of CDU party members to the AfD.

Following a six-hour meeting last week of the CDU’s executive committee, Laschet, 60, rolled up 31 votes to 9 for Bavarian Premier Markus Soder. 

As leader of the CDU’s Bavarian "sister party," the Christian Social Union (CSU), Soder, 54, sought to seek the chancellorship with the same "tail wagging dog" arrangement the CDU had forged with past CSU leaders and chancellor candidates Franz Josef Straus in 1979 and Edmund Stoiber in 2002. (Both were defeated in the general elections).

"Although more willing to foster and encourage a sustainable, energetic and forward leaning reform program," one German pundit who requested anonymity told Newsmax, "[H]e has the appearance, posture and image of a tough guy which makes him electable to even very conservative voters."

The major political story in Germany, however, is the rise of the Green Party and its move to the middle — sort of.  In a glowing editorial about the Greens, the Financial Times did acknowledge that "[s]ome Green doctrines are concerning, especially wealth-punishing tax policies and a reluctance to spend on defense. But the party is bringing a fresh air to German politics. More of the same is the last thing Germany needs." 

John Gizzi is chief political columnist and White House correspondent for Newsmax. For more of his reports, Go Here Now.