No matter what happens in November's election, Republicans will keep the majority in the House of Representatives, say political analysts.
While Democrats would almost surely make gains in the current 247-to-188 seat Republican majority in the House, chances are slim they will achieve a net gain of 30 seats that Democrats need to reach 218 seats needed to recapture the House.
Most analysts said this has a lot to do with the GOP’s domination of the congressional redistricting following the 2010 Census.
As a result of Republican control of the redistricting process in so many states, a high number of districts were redrawn to the advantage of one political party over another.
“If large number of independent, unaffiliated, less-involved voters come to the polls to vote against Trump and/or for Hillary, then many of those same voters might vote Democratic for Congress state legislature and create a coattail effect,” said Herb Asher, Ohio State University political scientist and a seasoned observer of Buckeye State politics.
He added that, “given how gerrymandered our U.S. House and state legislative seats are in favor of Republicans, it would take huge coattail effects to defeat Republican incumbents. I do not believe that that will happen in Ohio, although it may in other states if Clinton has double digit victories.”
Regarding Pennsylvania, Franklin and Marshall College professor G. Terry Madonna told me: “Too much gerrymandering. The only seat looks likely to be competitive is the 8th District [where retiring GOP Rep. Mike Fitzpatrick’s brother Bruce is in a tight race with Democratic state Rep. Steve Santarsiero]. At this point I don't see any other Republican defeats.”
Ed Feigenbaum, editor of the Indiana Legislative Insight newsletter, told me: “Even if we vote for Hillary, [Democratic Senate nominee Evan] Bayh, and [Democratic gubernatorial nominee John] Gregg, the odds are strong that the House delegation will remain 7 Republicans and 2 Democrats. The only seat in potential play is in the 9th District, ‘Tennessee Trey’ against ‘Miss Indiana.’”
“Tennessee Trey” is GOP nominee Trey Hollingsworth, who moved to the district from Tennessee about a year before announcing his candidacy and deployed roughly $2 million of his family’s money to win a five-candidate primary. “Miss Indiana” is 2014 Democratic nominee Shelli Yoder.
They're vying for the seat relinquished by Republican Rep. and U.S. Senate nominee Todd Young.
Along with the seats of Indiana’s Young and Pennsylvania’s Fitzpatrick, four others among the 25 seats relinquished by retiring GOP lawmakers could flip to Democratic: Kline (Minnesota), Hanna (New York), Gibson (New York), and Ribble (Wisconsin).
Among the 18 seats relinquished by Democratic House members, Republicans have a chance at gaining four: those of Reps. Kirkpatrick (Arizona), Graham (Florida), Murphy (Florida), and Israel (New York).
John Gizzi is chief political columnist and White House correspondent for Newsmax.
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