With final polling and analysis signaling a big win by Donald Trump over Nikki Haley in New Hampshire's Republican primary Tuesday night, the remaining question appears to be how will Minnesota Rep. Dean Phillips perform on the Democratic side against President Joe Biden — who chose not to be on the ballot and must thus win as a write-in candidate.
The final polls indicate Phillips won't fare well. The last Emerson College poll showed that among likely Democrat voters, Biden clobbers Phillips by 61 to 16 percent, with 5% for self-help author Marianne Williamson. This would be especially impressive since Biden, who with the Democratic National Committee sought to end New Hampshire's status as the first-in-the-nation primary in favor of South Carolina, must now win in the Granite State though write-ins. (The state legislature refused to change the date of the primary, leading the Democratic National Committee to retaliate by denying New Hampshire any delegates to the Democratic National Convention and thus reducing its fabled primary to little more than a "beauty contest").
In almost every way, the primary in 2024 is a latter-day version of that in 1968. That year, Sen. Eugene McCarthy, a Minnesotan like Phillips, ran on a platform of opposition to the Vietnam War and won a stunning 42% against President Lyndon Johnson — who won with 48% as a write-in candidate (the remaining votes were write-ins for, believe it or not, likely Republican nominee Richard Nixon). McCarthy's performance prompted New York Sen. Robert F. Kennedy to reverse his position and get in the race and, on March 31 of that year, Johnson announced he would not run again.
So, can Phillips be this year's Gene McCarthy?
"Dean Phillips does not have the stature that Eugene McCarthy did in 1968," said Chapman University (CA) Prof. Luke Nichter, author of the critically-acclaimed 1968: The Year That Broke Politics, "But the outcome could be similar in New Hampshire. Biden is not on the ballot, like LBJ, and depends on a write-in effort – something New Hampshire voters have long experience with. Biden is likely to win tomorrow, as LBJ did, but the higher the tally that Phillips gets the stronger the signal will be to other potential challengers that Biden is vulnerable among Democrats."
Fergus Cullen, former Republican State Chair of New Hampshire and the lone Republican city councilman in Dover (N.H.), disagreed.
"No, he hasn't caught on," Cullen told us, "McCarthy had an issue — the war — which is better than having an argument — he's old!"
Others say the message that Biden is ignoring New Hampshire is resonating with voters. One Phillips TV spot shows the creature Bigfoot saying he has looked all over snowy New Hampshire and can't find Joe Biden. Posters showing the back of Joe Biden's head with the legend "Missing!" are popular items at Phillips' headquarters in downtown Manchester.
"I don't know who is doing Phillips' ads but whoever is should get an award — they sure are clever," said former New Hampshire Rep. Charles Bass, a Republican and supporter of Nikki Haley.
Phillips supporters privately agree that how well he performs against Biden will determine whether their candidate continues after New Hampshire. Phillips himself freely admits he would like to see others get in the race because of his fear that Biden cannot defeat Trump.
As to just what performance in the primary would qualify Phillips as the Gene McCarthy of 2024 and whether he continues as a candidate is up to him and to the national media.
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