The apparent win of Democrat Conor Lamb for Pennsylvania's 18th District has shaken the Republican establishment to its foundations and points to a "wave election" in the coming midterms that will end Republican control of both the House and the Senate.
"If the trend continues until Election Day, the Republicans are looking at a loss of 60 or more House seats and control of the Senate," a top Republican strategist who asked not to be identified told Newsmax in the wake of the stunning Democratic upset Tuesday.
Some Republicans took comfort in Republican Rick Saccone's photo-finish against Lamb, but political insiders said the result was nothing less than a political disaster.
"This district was ready-made for a Republican win," the strategist explained. "It's literally Trump country with 94 percent of voters being white and voting consistently Republican for years, and Trump carried it in '16 by 20 points."
"If that seat can fall to the Democrats, after the Republicans outspent there by 3-to-1, the president came there twice, it means anything can fall," the strategist said. "Ted Cruz could lose his Senate seat in Texas."
The trend lines for the GOP since Trump's inauguration are not good.
Republicans celebrated after winning a series of special elections — like Karen Handel's win for Congressman Tom Price's Georgia seat after he was appointed to head HHS. But Democrats noted that Handel's win was close and that Democrats had shaved 10 points off of Price's 2016 victory margin. Other special elections had seen similar large swings in favor of the Democrats in once safe Republican districts.
Both Democratic wins in the Virginia governor's race and Alabama's Senate have certified that pollsters are underweighting Democratic voter intensity.
Many Republican leaders are pointing the finger at President Donald Trump. On the face of it, they say he should be soaring in the polls with record consumer and business confidence, a stock market near all-time highs and a series of policy wins -that include his tax cut and jobs act.
The president's allies say he is not the problem and shouldn't be saddled with the results of poor candidates like Saccone or Roy Moore. They note Trump warned that both were weak candidates and initially opposed Moore. They also say polls show that Republicans in Congress have far lower approval ratings than the president.
But Trump's approval numbers are less than impressive. The benchmark Gallup approval has the president ratings stuck in the high 30s for the past year — a rating that has always led to a wipeout in Congress for members of the same party.
"People like many of the president's policies," the strategist said, "But he is hemorrhaging among independents and suburban women voters that don't like the tweets, the chaos and the invective."
Congressional Republicans see the handwriting on the wall and are looking for exits. So far 37 Republican representatives have announced they will retire, resign, or seek another office — a post-World War II high. Democrats need just 25 seats to win control of the House.
The view before Pennsylvania was that Democrats would get control by picking up enough vacating seats and taking down a handful of blue state Republicans.
But the Pennsylvania result has thrown that scenario out the window, with Democrats eyeing a massive victory as they scoop up seats once believed to be securely Republican.
Two coming contests will test this tsunami scenario, special elections in Arizona's 8th District on April 24 and in Ohio's 12th District on Aug. 7. Both elections are to fill vacancies created by the resignations of Republican Reps. Trent Franks and Pat Tiberi, respectively. And both also are in districts that Trump carried handily.
And in these races, Democrats have recruited candidates who, like Lamb and Alabama Senate election victor Doug Jones, are more to the center.
John Gizzi is chief political columnist and White House correspondent for Newsmax. For more of his reports, Go Here Now.
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