Zogby: McCain Holds Slim Lead in Fla.

Arizona Sen. John McCain holds a small 31% to 28% lead over rival Mitt Romney, the former governor of Massachusetts, with others well back, the Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby telephone tracking poll in Florida shows.

The contest is the first in which former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani has campaigned intently, but he lags in a distant third place with 15% support. Iowa Caucus winner Mike Huckabee is fourth with 10% support.

McCain leads Romney among men, 33% to 27%, with Giuliani at 18%. Among women, Romney holds a tiny 29% to 28% edge, with Giuliani and Huckabee tied at 12%. Ron Paul dominates among Florida Republicans under age 30, but McCain leads among those age 30-49. McCain and Romney are tied among those age 50-64, but Romney holds the edge among those age 65 and older.

McCain leads among moderate Republicans, is tied with Romney among mainline conservatives, while Romney leads among those who consider themselves “very conservative.” McCain, Romney, and Huckabee are bunched at the top among those who consider themselves Born Again, while Romney leads among those who are not. McCain leads among Catholics.

The Republican three-day tracking poll in Florida included 814 likely Republican voters statewide, and was conducted Jan. 23-25, 2008. It carries a margin of error of +/- 3.4 percentage points.

Illinois Sen. Barack Obama reversed a declining course and regained some support heading into Election Day here, posting a 15-point lead just hours before polls open here today, the latest and last Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby daily telephone tracking poll shows.

Buoyed by widespread support among African American voters who are planning to participate in the Democratic Party primary here, Obama wins 41% support, compared to 26% for New York Sen. Hillary Clinton and 19% for former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards. Clinton and Edwards are splitting the support of white voters, who make up about half of the total Democratic electorate here.

While previous tracking polls have included three days of polling, this final release from South Carolina includes survey interviews conducted just on Thursday, Jan. 24, and Friday, Jan. 25, 2008. This latest telephone tracking survey included 816 interviews with likely Democratic voters and carries a margin of error of +/- 3.4 percentage points.

The race is closest in the largest cities of the state, but Obama still leads there - and enjoys wider leads in the suburbs and rural areas of the state. He also enjoys solid support across ideological lines, leading among progressives, liberals, and moderates alike.