After months of nipping at the heels of former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards among likely Iowa Democratic caucus–goers, New York Sen. Hillary Clinton has made a move to the top of the heap in the race for her party's presidential nomination, a new NewsMax/Zogby telephone poll shows.
Clinton's move up in Iowa replicates what she has done nationally, building a powerhouse campaign and benefiting in part from the positive opinions of her husband, the survey shows.
Clinton leads with 30% support, followed by Edwards at 23% and Illinois Sen. Barack Obama at 19%. She added six points to her column since the last Zogby Iowa polling in May, while Edwards and Obama have each lost three points during the same time period.
The Zogby telephone survey was conducted August. 17–19, 2007, and included 503 likely Democratic caucus–goers in Iowa. The margin of error is +/– 4.5 percentage points.
Among women – a key demographic for Clinton, who could be the first woman elected President – she expands her lead a bit, taking support from Edwards, while Obama remains static. She wins 35% support among females, while Obama wins 19% and Edwards collects backing from 17%.
NewsMax/Zogby Iowa Poll| Democrats | Aug. 17th | May 15 | March 26 | Jan. 16 |
| Clinton | 30% | 24% | 25% | 16% |
| Edwards | 23% | 26% | 27% | 27% |
| Obama | 19% | 22% | 23% | 17% |
| Richardson | 10% | 6% | 3% | 1% |
| Biden | 3% | 4% | 3% | 3% |
| Kucinich | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| Dodd | <1% | <1% | 1% | <1% |
| Gravel | <1% | <1% | <1% | <1% |
| Not Sure | 13% | 16% | 15% | 13% |
However, Edwards still leads among Iowa men, winning 29% support to 24% for Clinton. Obama wins 19% support from men.
Bill Richardson, the governor of New Mexico, has quietly built a constituency in Iowa, and now holds onto a strong fourth–place position, winning 10% support. He has inched up the scale a little at a time since January, when the Zogby poll had him at just 1% support.
Mentioned by pundits as a possible vice presidential candidate because of his extensive foreign–policy experience and his political success in what will be a key state in the general election next year, he is gradually building support for the top job.
Clinton lags behind Edwards and Obama among those in the liberal wing of the party, but mainstream liberals give her a substantial edge, and she holds her own among moderate Democrats, the survey shows. Mainstream liberals and moderates comprise a significantly larger voting bloc in the Democratic Party, the Zogby telephone survey shows.
Among the very liberal, Edwards is the favorite, winning 29% to Obama's 25% and Clinton's 18%. But among mainstream Democrats, Clinton is the far and away leader with 39% support, compared to 22% for Edwards and 20% for Obama.
Richardson elevates to the top tier among moderate Democrats, where he wins 18% support. Edwards leads with 25% support among moderates, followed by Clinton with 23% and Obama at 19%.
Asked if, should she be elected, former President Clinton would have a positive or negative effect on her administration, Democrats mostly believed he would help, the survey shows. While 81% said Bill Clinton would be a positive factor for her administration, just 11% said he would be a drag on her White House work. At 84%, women were a bit more positive about the former President than men, 77% of whom said Bill would help Hillary.
A wide majority of those likely Democratic caucus–goers said that, should a Democrat win the White House next year, they would prefer a return to the domestic and foreign policies of the Bill Clinton presidency. While 77% said they agreed with that idea, 16% disagreed. More than a third (36%) said they "strongly agreed" that that would be a good strategy for the next Democratic President.
Asked which Democratic candidate would be most effective in dealing with another attack on the U.S. by Osama bin Laden, Clinton far outpaced her rivals, the poll shows. Almost a third of likely Democratic caucus–goers (31%) favored her, compared to 17% who said Edwards would do a better job, and 15% who believed Obama would best counter bin Laden.
Survey Methodology [Iowa Caucus Poll] 08/17/07 - 08/18/07
This is a telephone survey of Democratic Caucus Voters conducted by Zogby International. The target sample is [503] interviews with approximately [28] questions asked.
Zogby International's sampling and weighting procedures also have been validated through its political polling: more than 95% of the firm's polls have come within 1% of actual election-day outcomes.