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Scant Evidence Suggests Terror Attacks Help Trump

Scant Evidence Suggests Terror Attacks Help Trump

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By    |   Wednesday, 21 September 2016 10:01 AM

The weekend terror attacks in New York and New Jersey and the stabbing of 10 people in a Minnesota mall have led some to believe that the situation would work in favor of Republican candidate Donald Trump, according to The Washington Post.

However, surveys after attacks in the past suggest otherwise.

After 2015 attacks in Paris and San Bernardino, the polls did not show any major shift in a Trump-Hillary Clinton race. Neither was there any difference in support after the Orlando shootings in June, according to the 2016 Chicago Council Survey.

The survey, which was conducted between June 10 - 27, is an example of an unusual real-time experiment as the Orlando attack took place on June 12 as 804 respondents participated in the survey before the attack and 1,257 took it after the attack.

Although there was a slight increase in the perception that international terrorism is a critical threat to U.S. security (from 73 percent before the attack to 77 percent after), the overall belief had shot up substantially before the attack — from an all-time low of 63 percent in 2014 to 75 percent in this June survey.

There was also a substantial increase in the percentage of Americans who felt less safe from terrorism and were concerned about gun violence and terror attacks.

Similarly, there was a surge in the percentage who believed that Islamic fundamentalism was a major threat (from 52 percent before the attack to 64 percent after) and the percentage who supported sending troops to fight violent Islamic extremist groups (37 percent before vs. 45 percent after).

The survey, however, revealed that there were no changes in perceptions of immigrants or refugees as a threat. There were also no differences in support for military action in Syria.

Hence, studying the survey results, there is very little evidence that either Trump or Clinton has gained after the Orlando attacks.

While half of voters said they would vote for Clinton — 52 percent before and 51 percent after — the attack in Orlando, four out of10 stated they would vote for Trump before and after the attack.

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The weekend terror attacks in New York and New Jersey and the stabbing of 10 people in a Minnesota mall have led some to believe that the situation would work in favor of Republican candidate Donald Trump, according to The Washington Post.
Scant, Evidence, Terror Attacks, Help, Trump
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2016-01-21
Wednesday, 21 September 2016 10:01 AM
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