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NY Times: Trump 'Solid Bet' to Win GOP Nomination

NY Times: Trump 'Solid Bet' to Win GOP Nomination
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By    |   Monday, 01 February 2016 02:43 PM

The New York Times considers Donald Trump a "solid" bet to win the Republican presidential nomination — with a slightly better than 50 percent chance of becoming the GOP's candidate.

"Mr. Trump is the clear favorite," Justin Wolfers, a professor of economics and public policy at the University of Michigan, writes in The Times' "Upshot" column.

Basing his opinion on PredictWise.com, which tracks political prediction markets where traders bet on who will win, Wolfers says Trump leads with 51 percent, followed by Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida with 33 percent.

Much farther behind are Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas in third place with 8 percent and former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush in fourth with 6 percent.

"Ted Cruz, who appears to be Mr. Trump's most serious rival to win in Iowa, is not expected to do as well in less conservative states," Wolfers writes.

At the tail end of the spectrum, according to Wolfers, are New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and Ohio Gov. John Kasich, who the prediction markets rank as 100-to-1 long shots.

"The markets see no real possibility that the other candidates will win, and each is rated as more improbable to win the nomination than Mitt Romney, who is not even running," Wolfers writes.

He says prediction markets "historically have proven to be more accurate than statistical models or polls."

But Wolfers believes the race remains wide open.

"As much as I've noted that Mr. Trump has slightly better than a 50 percent chance to win the nomination, they're also saying that there's nearly a 50 percent chance that he won't," he writes.

The billionaire real-estate tycoon has been the GOP presidential front-runner since last summer.

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The New York Times considers Donald Trump a "solid" bet to win the Republican presidential nomination - with a slightly better than 50 percent chance of becoming the GOP's candidate.
New York Times, Trump, Solid Bet, GOP, Nomination
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Monday, 01 February 2016 02:43 PM
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