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Tags: national hurricane center | european model | strike | southeast | west | florida

NHC Follows European Model, Strike on Southeast Fla., Other Models Show West Fla.

NHC Follows European Model, Strike on Southeast Fla., Other Models Show West Fla.
(NASA/NOAA GOES Project/AP)

By    |   Thursday, 07 September 2017 08:41 AM EDT

The National Hurricane Center is following a top European computer model showing Hurricane Irma slamming the southeast coast of Florida, while others are predicting a direct hit on the western side of the Sunshine State.

The Category 5 storm currently has winds of 180 mph and is expected to turn toward Florida in the coming days.

"The timing of the turn is the most important question and one still filled with uncertainty," the National Hurricane Center said on Thursday.

"The UKMET, UK Ensemble mean, and the NAVGEM are the models showing the latest turn, and they forecast Irma to move into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and near the west coast of the Florida peninsula.

"The ECMWF and ECMWF Ensemble mean are in the middle of the model pack and show Irma moving over the southeastern portion of the Florida peninsula. The GFS, Canadian, and GFS Ensemble mean show the earliest turn and show Irma moving east of the coast of Florida toward the southeastern United States.

"The new forecast track will best follow the ECMWF, as well as the Florida State Superensemble and the HFIP Corrected Consensus, and it calls for the center to move over portions of the southeastern Florida Peninsula between 72-96 hours and then across the Atlantic into southern South Carolina by 120 hours."

The ECMWF, or the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting, has been deemed the top system by officials in recent years, according to NBC News.

Known as the "European Model" it uses very high-powered computers to model weather patterns.

But the National Hurricane Center urged those threatened by the storm not to concentrate on the exact track. It cautioned the average track can vary up to 200 miles when predicting three to five days ahead.

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Headline
The National Hurricane Center is following a top European computer model showing Hurricane Irma slamming the southeast coast of Florida, while others are predicting a direct hit on the western side of the Sunshine State.
national hurricane center, european model, strike, southeast, west, florida
293
2017-41-07
Thursday, 07 September 2017 08:41 AM
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