Tags: electriccars | oil

Will Electric Cars Drive Oil Off the Market?

electric car at a charging station

By Friday, 25 September 2020 12:36 PM Current | Bio | Archive

The heads of our major oil companies worry about the future of oil consumption due the ever increasing number of electric cars.

Should they worry?

Let's find out.

I use data from 2019 instead of from this year since the coronavirus certainly distorts statistics.

In the U.S., we had about 340 million registered cars; out of this total, about 7% or, 245,000 vehicles were electric cars. Similar to gasoline driven cars, I assume a typical electric car will be driven 10,000 miles per year.

Reports say that the average electric motor requires on average 1 Kw-hour per 2.5 miles driven. Such cars then require about 4,000 Kw-hours of electricity per year, or, 110 Kw per day. This is the energy equivalence of 2.5 gallons of oil.

Assuming a gasoline powered car gets 20 mpg of gasoline. This then makes 1.4 gallons a day when driving 10,000 miles a year. These 1.4 gallons of gas have an energy equivalent of 1.17 gallons of oil. Ah, didn't you say, electric cards are more efficient?

But wait, where is the Kw-hours coming from? From an oil- or gas-fired electric power plant. According to my survey published in my blog of March 23, 2015, by the time the electricity has to travel through energy-absorbing stations (generators, transmission lines, batteries, etc.), the final output seen at the motor cable connector is only about 25% of the original energy input.

This means that the actual oil consumption of an electric car is 2.5/0.25 = 10 gallons oil a day, quite a bit more than gasoline powered cars.

There are at present 245,000 electric cars on the road. In order to supply sufficient kw-hours to power these cars one needs an extra power supply of 245,000 x 110 kw-hour = 26,950.000 kw-hours or, 26,950 Megawatt-hours just for electric cars.

The demand and production of electric cars keeps increasing. For example General Motors is planning to produce 1 million of these cars in 2025!

Assuming that in five years, there will be 3 million electric cars on the road, the additional need for extra electricity will swell to 330 million kw-hours, the equivalent of 330,000 Megawatt-hours a day.

As stated above (using 40.8 kw-hour/gallon oil) in 2025, one needs about 8,100,00 gallons (100,000 barrels) of oil or, natural gas equivalence, a day just to power 3 million electric cars. In all fairness there are 47,000 barrels a day of oil saved by not producing gasoline for the idle gas-powered cars. So, on balance, in 2025 electric cars will demand an additional 53.000 barrels of oil or gas equivalent each day, in order to satisfy their need for electricity.

To answer the above question: Sleep well you CEO's of major oil companies, your business model stays as is. As you can see from the above analyses your oil business will actually see an increase. Just tell some of your refineries to switch from gasoline to fuel oil production; and, you, dear reader: It is nothing essentially wrong to buy Exxon stock.

After reading this, you might say, why not use green energy?

At present, the U.S. produces about 158,000 of RATED megawatt hours per day of green energy. Accounting for nights, low wind, clouds etc. the actual available power is about 20% of the rated capacity. This makes 31,800 actual usable megawatt hours enough to power 289,000 electric cars a day.

Not quite enough, I would say. Besides, green energy is unevenly distributed and their output is fed into local power stations as a supplement.

Dr. Hans Baumann, a former Corporate Vice President and founder of his company, is a well known inventor, economist, and author having published books on scientific, economic, and historical subjects. He is a member of the American Research Society and an Inductee of the Hall of Fame of Automatic Control, besides also being an honorary member of a number of technical societies. Read Dr. Hans Baumann's Reports — More Here.

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The heads of our major oil companies worry about the future of oil consumption due the ever increasing number of electric cars.
electriccars, oil
Friday, 25 September 2020 12:36 PM
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