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Are the Polls Wrong on Biden-Trump?

biden and trump
(AP)

By    |   Monday, 14 September 2020 11:30 AM EDT

The election is a few months away and if you believe the polls Joe Biden (the Democratic presidential nominee) will win as the polls show he's up by 5% to 10%.

But are the polls accurate? Here are some reasons for saying they are wrong:

1."Many of the polls are for the anti-Trump media. They are intentionally skewing their figures."

This is what President Trump himself argues, with the aid of his favorite pollsters, the brothers Jim and John McLaughlin. It's nonsense. A pollster would go bust if they fixed their results. What's more, the logic of this argument is that the pro-Trump Fox News would produce polls showing a narrower race. In fact, Fox News's latest poll shows Biden 5% ahead.

2."The polls said Hillary Clinton would win last time. She lost. They could be wrong again.”

True, the polls called the wrong winner four years ago. But that's not the whole story. Nationally, the polls came close to the final vote share: on average they predicted that Clinton would win the popular vote by 52%-48%; the result was 51%-49%. Trump won the presidency despite lagging almost 3 million votes behind Clinton.

The polls tripped up in a handful of battleground seats. The FiveThirtyEight site's final, poll-based, predictions showed Clinton winning Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and Minnesota by 4%, 4%, 5% and 6% respectively. Trump won them all — just: his lead in all four states was 1.5% or less.

The polls did better in other battleground seats, with figures close to the final result in Colorado, Arizona, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Nevada and Florida.

In short, the polls had a particular problem in a few Rust Belt states, overstating Clinton's support and understating Trump's by 2-4 percentage points. It was enough for them to end up calling the wrong winner; but, statistically, their failure was not as great as has been popularly painted. If they are making the same mistakes today, Biden would still win comfortably on current figures.

November 3rd is NOT that far away.

George Noory hosts the nationally syndicated radio program, Coast to Coast AM, heard by more than 10 million listeners on nearly 620 stations and ranked in the Top 12 largest U.S. audiences by Talkers Magazine. Captivating program listeners with his discussions of all things curious and unexplained, George has a unique roster of fascinating guests ranging from scientists to conspiracy theorists, in his quest for truth, fueled by his desire to solve the great mysteries of our time. Born, raised, and educated in Detroit, George served nine years in the U.S. Naval Reserve and has three children and six grandchildren. Read George Noory's Reports — More Here.

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The election is a few months away and if you believe the polls Joe Biden (the Democratic presidential nominee) will win as the polls show he's up by 5% to 10%. But are the polls accurate?
polls
442
2020-30-14
Monday, 14 September 2020 11:30 AM
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