On Sept. 9-10, India will host the G20 summit in New Delhi.
This year, the annual meeting of global leaders of the largest economies will mark the absence of the presidents of China and Russia.
Chinese leader Xi Jinping announced that his country will be represented by the premier, Li Qiang, in an apparent snub to India, which is becoming China’s main economic competitor in Asia.
In fact, this year India overtook China as the world’s most populated country, and its gross domestic product grew by almost 8%, while China GDP increased by 6%.
At this pace, India’s GDP will overtake Japan by 2030, becoming the third largest economy in the world, ahead of Germany and the United Kingdom.
In the G20 summit in New Delhi, the United States will have a chance to reassert its strategic partnership with India, but it is unlikely that the Biden administration will convince Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, considering the strong economic ties between India and Russia.
The absence of Xi Jinping will thwart bilateral talks between the United States and China. Russia also announced that it will be represented by its foreign minister, Sergey Lavrov.
Therefore, there is low expectation that the G20 will be able to make significant progress on its agenda, because the group is too divided.
The rivalry between the United States and Russia on one side and between China and India on the other will inevitably curtail the group’s ability to reach agreements.
The meeting agenda includes a reform of the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to increase representation of emerging economies in these multilateral financial institutions, financial support to boost the energy transition in developing countries, and the achievement of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals — such as gender equality, food security, and the eradication of poverty.
However, geopolitical tensions may even prevent the G20 from reaching consensus on a joint communique, the final document issued by the group at the meeting's completion.
It would be the first time the G20 would end without a joint declaration.
In that case, the India’s summit would be considered a failure.
As the largest economy globally, the United States should lead the agenda of the G20.
Instead, India is taking center stage to promote itself as a major economic power; thus the Biden administration is unlikely to achieve concrete or noteworthy results at this year's G20 summit.
Francesco Stipo is an author and expert in international affairs. He is president of the Houston Energy Club, a member of the National Press Club in Washington, D.C. and a Fellow of the World Academy of Art and Science. In 2014, he was invited to join the Bretton Woods Committee. Born in Italy in 1973, Dr. Stipo is a United States Citizen. He holds a Ph.D. in Internatonal Law, and a Master's Degree in Comparative Law from the University of Miami. Read more of Dr. Stipo's reports — More Here.
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