White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett predicts that U.S. economic growth will defy expectations again in 2019 because of a business investment boom and President Donald Trump’s trade strategy.
“We’re definitely going to be at 3 or above 3 for next year as well,” Hassett told CNBC.
The Council of Economic Advisers chairman is hopeful that the sluggish housing market won’t hinder growth.
GDP has risen an average 3.3 percent through the first three quarters of 2018 and is expected to gain 3 percent in the fourth quarter.
However, most mainstream economists aren’t as optimistic, predicting 2019 growth of 2 percent to 2.5 percent.
Two regional Federal Reserve banks on Friday cut their estimate of fourth-quarter economic growth after the U.S. trade gap hit its highest level in 10 years and domestic payrolls growth slowed.
The U.S. economy is expanding at a 2.4 percent annualized rate in the fourth quarter as data showed domestic payrolls growth slowed in November, the Atlanta Federal Reserve’s GDPNow forecast model showed on Friday.
This was slower than the 2.7 percent pace for fourth-quarter gross domestic product that the Atlanta Fed’s GDP program calculated on Thursday.
Meanwhile, the New York Federal Reserve’s Nowcast model showed the U.S. economy is growing at a 2.44 percent clip in the fourth quarter as data showed the U.S. trade gap hit its widest in 10 years in October and domestic payrolls growth slowed in November. This was slower than the 2.50 percent rate calculated by N.Y. Fed’s program the previous week.
Late last month, the government said the U.S. economy slowed in the third quarter as previously reported, but the pace was likely strong enough to keep growth on track to hit the Trump administration’s 3 percent target this year, even as momentum appears to have moderated further early in the fourth quarter.
Gross domestic product increased at a 3.5 percent annualized rate, the Commerce Department said in its second estimate of third-quarter GDP growth. That was unchanged from its estimate in October and well above the economy’s growth potential, which economists estimate to be about 2 percent.
Hassett admitted the “boom” in business investment “kind of leveled off a bit,” but he expects it to resume as companies bring back profits stashed overseas.
“If you’re wondering about the sustainability of the boom, the fact that we don’t have this out of control housing sector with runaway price increases should actually give you comfort that we don’t have worry about our financial institutions having another housing bust, because housing is really underperforming,” he said.
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