Tags: s&p | stocks | fall

S&P Strategist Stovall: Stocks May Fall Another 17 Percent

By    |   Tuesday, 04 Oct 2011 07:54 AM

If history is a guide, the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index will probably drop another 17 percent to 915 around June from 1,099 Monday, says Sam Stovall, chief equity strategist at Standard & Poor's.

“Chances are that we will fall into a bear market,” he tells Yahoo. A bear market is defined as one that drops at least 20 percent. The S&P 500 has fallen 19 percent so far from its April 29 closing high of 1,364.

“In 80 percent of all the times since 1945 that the S&P has fallen by 15 percent or more, it has morphed into a new bear market,” Stovall says. And economic weakness in the United States, Europe and Asia should help drive it there this time around, he says.

wallstreetgetty200.jpg
(Getty Images photo)
On average, it takes nine months for bull markets to turn into bears, which would put the S&P 500 in bear market territory around 1,095 in January, Stovall says. Bear markets on average last 14 months, with a decline averaging 33 percent.

“So if history repeats itself, that would bring us down to 915 on the S&P 500 in June,” Stovall says.

The market almost fell into bear territory Monday, as the S&P 500 dropped to a 2011 low.

"There’s reason to think that the bears will take control," Ryan Detrick, senior technical strategist at Schaeffer’s Investment Research, tells Bloomberg.

"We violated that low for the year. It could definitely lead to some accelerated selling here."

© 2017 Newsmax Finance. All rights reserved.

   
1Like our page
2Share
StreetTalk
If history is a guide, the Standard Poor s 500 Index will probably drop another 17 percent to 915 around June from 1,099 Monday, says Sam Stovall, chief equity strategist at Standard Poor's. Chances are that we will fall into a bear market, he tells Yahoo. A bear...
s&p,stocks,fall
245
2011-54-04
Tuesday, 04 Oct 2011 07:54 AM
Newsmax Inc.
 

Newsmax, Moneynews, Newsmax Health, and Independent. American. are registered trademarks of Newsmax Media, Inc. Newsmax TV, and Newsmax World are trademarks of Newsmax Media, Inc.

NEWSMAX.COM
MONEYNEWS.COM
© Newsmax Media, Inc.
All Rights Reserved