The apparent “recovery” isn’t the start of a bull market, warns Ron Insana, a CNBC and MSNBC contributor.
Rather, he describes it as just the opposite.
“I think this is more of a bear-market rally. The polar opposite of a bull-market correction, bear-market rallies are often wrongly greeted with great brio as many are fooled by the bear trap,” Insana, the author of four books on Wall Street, wrote on
“A bull market is a strong cyclical, or secular, up move that is broadly supported by a wide variety of stocks,” he said.
“Certainly, in the case of China, there have been few, if any, signs of a positive shift in the underlying economy, even though the market has jumped,” he said.
“Given the softness in global manufacturing, including here at home — the Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index was another such example on Monday — a negative feedback loop is growing more obvious day after day,” he said.
“Instead of a virtuous circle in global economic activity, China may be leading a vicious cycle of slowing growth.”
Meanwhile, speculation has intensified China’s central bank will add to the six interest-rate cuts since November last year amid a recent raft of indicators signaling a deepening economic slowdown, including falling exports, declining producer prices and slowing industrial output.
Manufacturing conditions are at the weakest level in more than three years, official data showed earlier this week.
“Easing expectations are having a positive impact on property stocks, which are a focus of the market at the moment,” Castor Pang, head of research at Core-Pacific Yamaichi Hong Kong, told Bloomberg.
“There’s a good chance for the broader market to chalk up more gains even though there will be ups and downs.”
And for the U.S., there have been warnings that 2016 could be difficult for the economy.
As the U.S. economy enters its seventh year of expansion following the 2008-09 crisis, the probability of recession will reach 65 percent, Citi's rates strategists wrote in their 2016 outlook published late on Tuesday, Reuters
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