Tags: Roach | euphoria | economy | overstatement

Yale's Roach: Economic Euphoria 'Probably an Overstatement'

By    |   Tuesday, 24 Apr 2012 07:52 AM

The U.S. economy and its foreign counterparts aren’t looking as strong as some surmised several weeks ago, says Yale economist Stephen Roach.

“All this euphoria about a resumption of rapid global growth was probably an overstatement," he tells CNBC.

The negative news, includes weak jobless claims, housing numbers, and retail sales in the United States; a third straight quarter of recession in Europe; and decelerating GDP growth in China, the veteran Morgan Stanley economist says.

Editor's Note: Obama’s Last-Ditch Effort to ‘Fix’ America Will Cause the Unthinkable

"The data flow is mixed. The most disappointing thing in the United States is it looks like a lot of the hiring we were so enthusiastic about late last year was weather-related.”

Non-farm payrolls rose a meager 120,000 in March.

“The bloom is off the rose," Roach says. “In a weak economy we’re going to have a tough time getting unemployment below 8 percent.” The jobless rate totaled 8.2 percent in March.

While Roach favors a tighter monetary policy from the Federal Reserve, he takes issue with calls from Republican presidential candidate Ron Paul to abolish the central bank.

"We just need policy, discipline, and an independent Fed, not a Fed that is eliminated," Roach says.

He isn’t the only one concerned about global economic growth. That worry is helping to drive stocks down across the world.

"There's enough out there that can justify taking the market down," Mark Bronzo, a portfolio manager at Guggenheim Investments, tells Bloomberg.

Editor's Note: Obama’s Last-Ditch Effort to ‘Fix’ America Will Cause the Unthinkable







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