Tags: Recession | Economy | Barnes | Achuthan

Economists Barnes and Achuthan: Recession Calls Are Wildly Exaggerated

Image: Economists Barnes and Achuthan: Recession Calls Are Wildly Exaggerated

By    |   Wednesday, 24 May 2017 06:10 PM

BCA Research Chief Economist Martin Barnes and ECRI Co-founder Lakshman Achuthan provided an outlook of the U.S. economy that surely contradicts the consensus sentiment.

Barnes, speaking at Mauldin Economics’ SIC 2017, pointed out that while the post-2008 expansion has been painfully slow, if it lasts for another two years, it’ll hit the all-time record.

He also pointed out that the U.S. isn’t falling prey to the typical imbalances you would expect in a long cycle.

“Importantly, inflation has been subdued — and inflation is a typical characteristic of late-cycle,” he said, adding: “We won’t get back to 5–6% interest rates. Maybe 3%, but we’re a long way from that.

No Recessionary Alarm Bells

Barnes noted that auto, housing, and business investments tend to slow down ahead of a recession, and he doesn’t see any alarm bells ringing in those sectors.

“The economy has grown at the rate you’d naturally expect it to grow at,” he concluded. “I don’t worry about the near-term prospects of the economy. We’re going to putz along at about a 2% growth rate.”

Reality Check

Taking the reins from Barnes, ECRI Co-founder Lakshman Achuthan echoed his largely positive, sanguine outlook.

Providing a dose of perspective, he noted that the Western economy experienced a breathtakingly quick rise, but that its position on top is an exception in the longer history of global GDP.

According to the ECRI’s analysis, the U.S. is decisively in a growth rate cycle upturn, which began last year, Achuthan said, adding: “There is no recession in sight this year.”

However, he did warn that manufacturing data, a leading growth indicator, is now pointing to a new downturn in growth.

Achuthan wrapped up a mainly positive and insightful presentation at the SIC 2017 by saying that the cyclical outlook hasn’t been this good in years — but investors should be aware that a global industrial downturn is on the horizon.

Related Stories:

Get Live Updates from the Sold-Out 2017 Strategic Investment Conference

Don’t miss out as some of the world’s leading asset managers, geopolitical experts, and Federal Reserve insiders, including John Mauldin, George Friedman and Ian Bremmer, discuss how to assemble a winning portfolio for the Paradigm Shifts now destabilizing the world. Click here to tune in.

© 2017 Newsmax Finance. All rights reserved.

   
1Like our page
2Share
StreetTalk
BCA Research Chief Economist Martin Barnes and ECRI Co-founder Lakshman Achuthan provided an outlook of the U.S. economy that surely contradicts the consensus sentiment.
Recession, Economy, Barnes, Achuthan
315
2017-10-24
Wednesday, 24 May 2017 06:10 PM
Newsmax Inc.
 

Newsmax, Moneynews, Newsmax Health, and Independent. American. are registered trademarks of Newsmax Media, Inc. Newsmax TV, and Newsmax World are trademarks of Newsmax Media, Inc.

NEWSMAX.COM
MONEYNEWS.COM
© Newsmax Media, Inc.
All Rights Reserved