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Pimco: Fed Won’t Raise Rates for at Least Two Years

By    |   Tuesday, 10 Aug 2010 08:36 AM

With the economy showing renewed weakness, the Federal Reserve probably won’t raise interest rates for two to three years, says Pimco money management star Bill Gross.

He points to the two-year Treasury note yield, which has dropped to a record low below 0.5 percent, as proof.

“When you analyze that portion of the curve, it says the Fed is on hold for a long, long time,” Gross told Bloomberg.

The Fed has held the federal funds rate at a record low of zero to 0.25 percent since December 2008 in an effort to pull the economy out of the Great Recession.

“What the market really thinks is that for the next two to three years, the Fed doesn’t do anything, but then magically nominal GDP and inflation reappear,” Gross said.

That attitude is evidenced by the behavior of the yield curve, which measures the difference between short-term and long-term Treasury yields, he says.

The yield gap between 2- and 10-year Treasuries recently stood at 2.33 percentage points, more than double the average of 1.11 percent over the past 20 years, Bloomberg reports.

Rather than contemplating an increase in interest rates to combat inflation, some Fed officials have begun discussing an expanded easing policy to prevent deflation.

"We have to be ready for the idea that if there's further shocks to the economy, we could get into a deflationary scenario," St. Louis Fed President Bullard James Bullard told Reuters.

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With the economy showing renewed weakness, the Federal Reserve probably won t raise interest rates for two to three years, says Pimco money management star Bill Gross. He points to the two-year Treasury note yield, which has dropped to a record low below 0.5 percent, as...
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Tuesday, 10 Aug 2010 08:36 AM
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