Tags: 2020 Elections | personal | income | states | 2020 | race

Personal Income Booms in States With Decisive Role in 2020 Race

Personal Income Booms in States With Decisive Role in 2020 Race
(Dennis Thompson/Dreamstime)

Tuesday, 26 November 2019 06:46 PM

Personal income growth has been surging in some U.S. political battlegrounds, including a third of the counties in Pennsylvania -- which Donald Trump narrowly flipped in 2016 and may need to win re-election next year.

In the president’s first two years in office, a total of 325 counties representing nearly 6% of the U.S. population experienced their best annualized income gains since at least 1992, according to data compiled by Bloomberg News. And 127 of those are located in perennial swing states, including Ohio and Iowa.

Bloomberg News analyzed per capita income growth in all U.S. counties going back to Bill Clinton’s first presidential term. While voters don’t normally track economic indicators very closely, Trump’s re-election campaign will focus on his economic record and appealing to those who are seeing the benefits of growth.

“I would expect the strength of the economy to improve the president’s chance of winning Pennsylvania in 2020,” said Boyd William Nash-Stacey, chief economist for BBVA Compass.

“However, incoming data appears to be less upbeat for these areas and the tailwinds present in 2017-2018 may be giving way to more persistent headwinds, signaling a less auspicious economic environment for the president,” he added.

Past Elections

A look at the past few decades indicates that growth in personal income, by itself, may have limited impact on voters.

Under Clinton’s second term from 1997 to 2000, 773 U.S. counties enjoyed their highest personal income growth -- the second-best showing in the past 27 years. New England, in particular, benefited under his presidency with 90% of counties experiencing their best years of income growth.

Even so, Republican George W. Bush won a close victory over the Democrats in the 2000 election for the White House.

Per capita incomes -- which includes wages, proprietor income, dividends, interest, rents, and government benefits -- grew in 835 counties during Bush’s second term from 2004-2008, marking the strongest performance under any president since 1992.

Nevertheless, Democrat Barack Obama captured the presidency in 2008. His two terms coincided with the Great Recession -- when only 225 of America’s total of about 3,100 counties had their finest years for personal-income growth.

Michael Bloomberg, founder and majority owner of Bloomberg LP, the parent company of Bloomberg News, announced plans on Sunday to seek the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination.

© Copyright 2020 Bloomberg News. All rights reserved.


   
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Personal income growth has been surging in some U.S. political battlegrounds, including a third of the counties in Pennsylvania -- which Donald Trump narrowly flipped in 2016 and may need to win re-election next year.
personal, income, states, 2020, race
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2019-46-26
Tuesday, 26 November 2019 06:46 PM
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