Tags: oil | glut | energy | supply

Crude Glut Bodes Ill for Short-Term Oil Price

Crude Glut Bodes Ill for Short-Term Oil Price
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By    |   Friday, 06 November 2015 10:28 AM

Oil prices have crashed since reaching a peak of $107 a barrel last year and are likely to stay low as long as the U.S. has an oil glut, says Force Majeure, a blogger at Seeking Alpha.

“While crude remains within spitting distance of multi-month highs, the headwinds against higher prices appear to be increasing," the unnamed author writes. “I firmly believe that production will eventually drop sufficiently to rebalance the market, but I see crude oil susceptible to trade under $45/barrel before that happens.”

Crude slumped more than 3 percent to close at $46.32 a barrel on Wednesday after the Energy Information Administration reported that oil inventories had increased for the sixth straight week. U.S. stockpiles are at 483 million barrels, near the all-time high storage level of 490 million barrels set last April.

Despite that rise in inventories, Force Majeure sees the possibility for an eventual rise in oil prices as U.S. output is reduced.

“Much of my bullish thesis is built around declining U.S. production in response to the 65% reduction in rig count,” the author writes. “Just last week, Baker Hughes reported that the rig count slid another 14 rigs to 578 active rigs, the lowest tally since June 2010.”

Force Majeure has a long position in the United States Oil Fund exchanged-traded fund, which tracks the oil industry, with an average price of $14 a share. The fund traded at $14.19 a share at 10:13 a.m. New York time on Nov. 6.

“For those without a position in oil, I would advise watchful waiting at this time. It is better to be on sidelines wishing you were in the game than to be in the game wishing you were on the sidelines,” the author writes. “While I continue to believe in prospects of crude oil, I believe that a short term pullback due to a continued supply glut will offer a lower risk entry opportunity under $45/barrel.”

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Oil prices have crashed since reaching a peak of $107 a barrel last year and are likely to stay low as long as the U.S. has an oil glut, says Force Majeure, a blogger at Seeking Alpha.
oil, glut, energy, supply
339
2015-28-06
Friday, 06 November 2015 10:28 AM
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