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Fund Manager Andurand Says US Oil Could Fall to $50 a Barrel

Wednesday, 29 October 2014 11:58 AM

Pierre Andurand, one of the most respected and successful fund managers in the oil industry, said he believed U.S. light crude oil could fall as low as $50 a barrel.

The U.S. benchmark oil price, also known as WTI, "will be volatile, but assuming no more supply disruptions, I think we can overshoot down to $50 a barrel," Andurand told Reuters on the sidelines of the Oil & Money conference on Wednesday.

"The move will mainly be in the front of the curve, but not just the first three months, the first six months or so," he said, adding that Brent would come down as well.

Andurand was co-founder of hedge fund BlueGold, which racked up record returns during the steep rise in oil prices in 2008 and the subsequent collapse in 2008-2009.

Bluegold's returns were lower in 2010, and the fund posted a loss the following year. Its co-founders eventually went their separate ways, and Andurand now runs a smaller hedge fund under his own name, which returned more than 25 percent last year and is up marginally year-to-date in 2014.

Andurand told the Oil and Money conference that he thought it unlikely that OPEC would cut production, even though current supply and demand trends suggested the market could be in a 2 million barrel-per-day surplus next year.

"OPEC, which is really Saudi, Kuwait, UAE, could take the heat between them and cut 2 million bpd next year, then another 1 million next year, then another 1 million 12 months after that," he said.

"But if they did that, prices would rise and U.S. output would keep growing and we'd keep seeing large efficiency gains. U.S. production growth has to slow down, otherwise there will need to be more supply disruptions in large producing countries."

He added, "Supply growth has been higher than expected. The period of stable oil prices we've had over the last three or so years has really been by chance, with supply disruptions masking this shale oil production."

"We are going to be in a bear market. I think we go lower before we go higher." He declined to say whether his fund was currently shorting the oil market.

© 2019 Thomson/Reuters. All rights reserved.

   
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Pierre Andurand, one of the most respected and successful fund managers in the oil industry, said he believed U.S. light crude oil could fall as low as $50 a barrel.
oil, crude, Andurand, fund
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2014-58-29
Wednesday, 29 October 2014 11:58 AM
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