Newsmax Finance Insider and renowned economist Larry Kudlow warns that the unhealthy U.S. economy stands a one-in-three chance of sliding into a recession.
“The economy is fundamentally not healthy,” the conservative talk-show host recently told CNBC.
“This is a very peculiar cycle. The financial system itself is still very clogged. I don't believe it can go on forever. Therefore I think the risk of recession is there. It may be only 30%, 35%, but it's definitely there,” the CNBC senior contributor said.
“I think business is in a mild recession, not yet the whole economy. I don't see that. But you've got falling business investment, falling profits, falling profit margins and falling industrial production. Since business creates jobs, I think you're going to see slower job creation in the future. It's not a catastrophe but the economy is in low gear,” he explained.
In a wide-ranging interview, Kudlow touched on a variety of topics:
- Middle-class wage hikes: “The middle class — many of them haven't had an effective wage increase in 20 years, and some of them are making less money. Many of them are making less money now than they made 20 years ago,” Kudlow said.
- Fed's rate-hike plans: “You have no inflation, a soft economy. This is no time to be jacking up interest rates,” he said.
- How to revive U.S. businesses: "Let's cut the corporate tax sharply. Let the economy reignite as it will in about six months. And then the fed can follow real interest rates higher. That's the thing. First fiscal stimulus through good taxes. Second, let the central bank get out of their hole by following the economy higher."
- Trump as president: "I think he will get it in. If he wins it will be a Republican senate and Republican house and I think you'll see a major, major tax reform. He's going to get that through. You're talking the art of the deal."
- Trade friends and foes: "I supported Nafta and I continue to support Nafta, but on that particular point, Mexico does break a lot of trade laws. They're not as bad as China. China breaks all trade laws and something has got to be done about that. What we need to do is renegotiate these trade deals. And, again, a strong guy like Trump, the art of the deal, maybe he can do it. Maybe he can't. I've always said this. I've been uncomfortable with Donald's trade position."
Kudlow isn't along in his recession warnings.
John Burbank, the hedge fund manager who in 2015 warned of a China-led global economic slowdown, said he expects a U.S. recession within the next year as debt levels rise and central banks are stymied on monetary policy, Bloomberg
China will enter a liquidity crisis with the largest sum of non-performing debt in the world, Burbank, the founder of $4.1 billion Passport Capital, said in a May 5 investor letter. The U.S. economy will contract at a time when the Federal Reserve has the fewest options in history to cut interest rates, he said.
“For both it will be a normal ending after decades of extending their booms,” Burbank said in the letter obtained by Bloomberg. “We think this is a time full of peril and repositioning that heralds either the start of a new market reality, i.e. inflation and too much liquidity, or the beginning of the liquidation.”
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(Newsmax wire services contributed to this report).
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