Tags: jp morgan | gdp | growth | view

JP Morgan, Atlanta Fed Slash GDP Growth Estimates

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Thursday, 21 February 2019 03:18 PM

J.P. Morgan on Thursday lowered its tracking estimate on U.S. economic growth in the first quarter as durable goods orders rose less than forecast in December with core capital orders posting a surprise drop.

U.S. gross domestic product likely grew at a 1.50 percent annualized pace in the first three months of the year based on the latest durable goods data, slower than an earlier calculated rate of 1.75 percent, J.P. Morgan economist Michael Feroli wrote in a research note.

J.P. Morgan also reduced its estimate on gross domestic product in the final quarter of 2018 to 1.4 percent from an earlier estimate of 1.6 percent.

Despite the GDP downgrades for previous and current quarters, Feroli said he expects economic growth to rebound to 2.25 percent in the second quarter on a likely pickup in consumer and government spending.

“We continue to see modestly better times ahead,” Feroli wrote. “Much of this (is) from the normalization of consumer and government spending from, respectively, the shocks of the December retail sales report and the federal government shutdown.”

Meanwhile, a forecast model by the Atlanta Federal Reserve on Thursday revised downward the U.S. economy’s expected fourth-quarter growth rate to under 1.5 percent.

The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2018 is 1.4 percent on February 21, down from 1.5 percent on February 14.

After Thursday morning's advance durable manufacturing report from the U.S. Census Bureau, the nowcast of fourth-quarter real nonresidential equipment investment growth declined from 4.5 percent to 3.9 percent.

The next GDPNow update is Monday, February 25.

© 2019 Thomson/Reuters. All rights reserved.

   
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J.P. Morgan on Thursday lowered its tracking estimate on U.S. economic growth in the first quarter as durable goods orders rose less than forecast in December with core capital orders posting a surprise drop.
jp morgan, gdp, growth, view
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2019-18-21
Thursday, 21 February 2019 03:18 PM
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