Tags: Gundlach | junk | bond | risk

Gundlach: Junk Bond Market at Risk of Crisis When Rates Rise

By    |   Wednesday, 22 April 2015 08:20 AM

High-yield bond funds have seen a huge inflow of cash since the 2008-09 financial crisis, as investors have searched desperately for yield in a time of historically low interest rates.

But that mass migration to junk could end in major trouble, says star investor Jeff Gundlach, CEO of DoubleLine Capital.

"The worry is that interest rates could start rising a few years from now, and when rates start to rise, the quest for yield will cool down, because that's what's driving a lot of investment activity," he tells Wall Street Week.

"The risk is there could be a run on the bond funds, causing further downward price movement. A lot of investors don't like Treasurys. They've been throwing caution to the wind."

The Federal Reserve has kept short-term interest rates near zero since December 2008, sparking the bond rally. But it is now contemplating when to begin raising rates. Many economists expect a move in September.

Because of the low interest rates, there aren't a lot of bonds maturing in the next few years, he notes.

"The entire life of the junk bond market has been during secularly declining interest rates. It's like a summer insect. You can't talk about ice with a summer insect," Gundlach states, adding that the junk bond market will be the next crisis, but it won't be for a few years.

To be sure, Gundlach thinks the Fed will wait until 2016 to raise rates, because the economy has "kind of sputtered out." GDP grew only 2.2 percent in the fourth quarter, and the Atlanta Fed's forecasting model puts growth at just 0.1 percent for the first quarter.

Bank analyst Dick Bove of Rafferty Securities doesn't see the Fed rushing in to increase rates either.

"Expectations that the Fed will raise rates in September or even June are off the mark," he tells Yahoo. "The dollar is simply too strong. It's having a significant impact on the earnings of international companies across the board and it's having an impact on the trade balance."

The Dollar Index, which measures the greenback against six major currencies, hit a 12-year high last month. A strong dollar hurts our exports by making them more expensive in foreign currency terms and makes U.S. corporate revenue earned overseas worth less in dollars.

An early rate hike would lead to a downward spiral, Bove says. "The trade balance would grow more negative, international companies would lose money overseas, jobs would be lost in the U.S. and the growth of the economy in the U.S. would slow down."

© 2019 Newsmax Finance. All rights reserved.

   
1Like our page
2Share
StreetTalk
High-yield bond funds have seen a huge inflow of cash since the 2008-09 financial crisis, as investors have searched desperately for yield in a time of historically low interest rates.
Gundlach, junk, bond, risk
427
2015-20-22
Wednesday, 22 April 2015 08:20 AM
Newsmax Media, Inc.
 

Newsmax, Moneynews, Newsmax Health, and Independent. American. are registered trademarks of Newsmax Media, Inc. Newsmax TV, and Newsmax World are trademarks of Newsmax Media, Inc.

NEWSMAX.COM
MONEYNEWS.COM
© Newsmax Media, Inc.
All Rights Reserved