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El-Erian: 2 Percent GDP Growth the New Normal

By    |   Tuesday, 26 May 2009 12:04 PM

The United States will have to get used to the idea of sub-par economic growth and a jobless rate of more than 8 percent for some time, experts say.

A year from now, "the market will realize that potential growth for the United States is no longer 3 percent, but is 2 percent or under," Mohamed El-Erian, chief executive of vaunted fund manager Pimco, told Bloomberg Radio.

"We are transitioning to what we call at Pimco a new normal."

That means the United States will play a less dominant role in the global economy, he says.

"There is a recognition that the future of the globe depends not only on the United States but on other countries as well," El-Erian points out. "That's a big change."

David Rosenberg, the former chief North American economist for Bank of America, also says we better lower our expectations. Get ready for a shift from spending to savings.

"This is going to be a new era of frugality," Rosenberg, now chief economist at Gluskin Sheff & Associates, tells Bloomberg.

"This isn't some flashy two- or three-quarter deal. This is a secular change in household attitudes."

Economist Nouriel Roubini, whose pessimistic forecasts have earned him the moniker Dr. Doom, says it may be premature to think of the new normal.

"People like to talk about green shoots" in the economy, he tells Time magazine. "All I see is a lot of yellow weeds."

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The United States will have to get used to the idea of sub-par economic growth and a jobless rate of more than 8 percent for some time, experts say.A year from now, "the market will realize that potential growth for the United States is no longer 3 percent, but is 2 percent...
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2009-04-26
Tuesday, 26 May 2009 12:04 PM
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