Equities will outperform commodities in the “near term” after surges last year in metal, energy and agricultural product prices, said Jeffrey R. Currie, head of commodities research at Goldman Sachs Group Inc.
Global stocks are still about $9.6 trillion short of the record $62.6 trillion of market capitalization reached in October 2007, data compiled by Bloomberg show. The MSCI World Index of shares has climbed 2.1 percent this year, almost double the gain of the Standard & Poor’s GSCI Total Return Index of 24 commodities.
“Both commodities and equities have substantial upside, which is why we prefer both when looking at the medium- to long-term,” Currie said in an interview in London today. “Near-term, we favor equities over commodities but on a 6- to 12-month horizon, we shift back to favoring the commodities along with equities.”
Goldman on Dec. 13 forecast an 18 percent advance in raw materials in 12 months, led by a 28 percent gain in precious metals. Commodities that perform the best will be those in which China isn’t self-sufficient, the company said. Commodity assets under management will attract a total of $60 billion in new money this year, the second most after 2009, Barclays estimates.
Gold futures last year gained 30 percent, crude oil rose 15 percent and corn jumped 52 percent.
Currie on Oct. 22 correctly forecast higher prices for crude oil, copper, corn and platinum in a Bloomberg Television interview. Since then, crude has gained 11 percent, copper and corn are both up 16 percent and platinum rose 7.6 percent.
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