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Goldman: Don't Worry So Much About Weak Manufacturing Data

Goldman: Don't Worry So Much About Weak Manufacturing Data
(Katarzyna-Bialasiewicz/Dreamstime)

Sunday, 21 July 2019 11:43 PM

Markets pay too much attention to manufacturing data and shouldn’t be overly concerned about recent weakness in the sector, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

Manufacturing drives about a third of the bond-market impact of growth data surprises and that’s probably more than it should be, Goldman economists including Daan Struyven wrote in a note July 19. Economic statistics are disproportionately focused on manufacturing and only “slowly evolving” their way out despite the drop in its share of gross domestic product to around 10%, they said.

“It is important not to get too obsessed with ups and downs in manufacturing data to assess the overall pace of economic growth,” the report said. “We are therefore not too worried about the Q2 slowing of manufacturing data, which likely reflects an inventory adjustment, weaker foreign growth, and 2018 dollar appreciation.”

Ahead of the Federal Reserve’s meeting at the end of this month, economists and strategists have been watching fragility in manufacturing as a potential key to whether, or how much, policy makers decide to cut rates. The JPMorgan Global Manufacturing PMI has been on a downward trajectory for more than a year and dropped into contraction territory in May and June. U.S. manufacturing output has fallen in consecutive quarters, the common definition of recession within the industry.

Goldman estimates that manufacturing data like the ISM and industrial production reports account for 25% to 45% of the bond market impact of activity data surprises, while the sector now accounts for only 20% of the volatility in overall output growth and 10% of the volatility in job growth.

“We warn against putting excessive weight on ups and downs in manufacturing data,” Goldman said. “Manufacturing is not the economy.”

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Markets pay too much attention to manufacturing data and shouldn't be overly concerned about recent weakness in the sector, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.
goldman, weak, manufacturing, data
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2019-43-21
Sunday, 21 July 2019 11:43 PM
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