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Goldman Sachs: Signs Point to Market Drop of Up to 20 Percent

Goldman Sachs: Signs Point to Market Drop of Up to 20 Percent
(Dreamstime/Melinda Fawver)

Monday, 29 January 2018 07:26 AM

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. predicts a correction in global stocks is on the horizon, but says any such pullback would be a buying opportunity.

Strategists at the U.S. bank say signals are flashing for a drop of 10 to 20 percent in equity prices in the coming months.

Goldman’s risk appetite gauge is hovering near a record high, indicating a sharp rise in investor optimism, while traders seem complacent about political risks like Italy’s national elections, they say.

Still, the risk of a full-blown bear market is viewed as low, as strong and synchronized global growth provides a reason to stay bullish.

“We do not believe that this would be prolonged or morph into a bear market,” strategists including Peter Oppenheimer wrote in a note on Monday. “Historically, there are many examples of corrections that are short-lived and do not turn into more drawn-out bear markets that are typically associated with economic weakness.”

Goldman, which remains overweight global equities, defines a bear market as a drop of 20 percent or more.

The amount of value added to U.S. equities in January is poised to exceed any month on record, data compiled by Bloomberg show, while the MSCI All-Country World Index is trading near an all-time high, buoyed by optimism over growth and corporate profits. While the recent strength of global stocks does not mean they must enter a correction phase, it suggests one is overdue, Goldman says.

“Rising valuations, amid increased optimism, make the market more vulnerable to a setback even if the underlying trend remains intact,” the strategists wrote.

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Strategists at the U.S. bank say signals are flashing for a drop of 10 to 20 percent in equity prices in the coming months.
goldman, sachs, correction, global, equity, markets
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2018-26-29
Monday, 29 January 2018 07:26 AM
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