Tags: goldman | recession | risk | economy

Goldman: Recession Risk 'Below Average' for Next 3 Years

one hundred dollar bill with recession above it in black letters
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By    |   Tuesday, 02 October 2018 05:12 PM

Goldman Sachs predicts that the U.S. economy stands only a "muted" chance of plunging into recession in the near future and a "below average" likelihood during the next three years.

Goldman economist Daan Struyven modeled the current run, which is just 10 months away from being the longest expansion in history, CNBC reported.

"The good news is that the model still classifies the expansion as mid-cycle," Struyven said in a note.

He cautioned that a sudden growth spurt could change things and switch the recovery from midcycle to late cycle.

"Cyclically, the financial system and the economy have spent a long time climbing out of the deep hole torn by the crisis and Great Recession," he wrote. "And structurally, better anchored inflation expectations allow the Fed to increase interest rates at a more gradual pace than in past cycles."

"The less good news is that further strong growth could push us to a late-cycle setting relatively soon," he said. "The labor market is already there, and it would not take much additional wage and price acceleration for the model to indicate an inflation overshoot late-cycle. A financial overshoot late-cycle diagnosis is slightly further off, despite the telltale high levels of confidence."

Obviously, not everyone is so optimistic about the economy's future.

Investment guru Nouriel Roubini warns “voodoo economics” is part of a “perfect storm” brewing that will plunge the U.S. into recession in 2020.

He also speculated that such an economic downturn could prompt President Donald Trump to start a war with Iran.

“It’s voodoo economics. Reagan tried it, Bush tried it... so you might have, by 2020, a perfect storm for the U.S. and the global economy,” the professor at NYU Stern School of Business recently warned Bloomberg Surveillance.

Voodoo economics is a controversial phrase used by George H. W. Bush in reference to President Ronald Reagan's economic policies, which came to be known as "Reaganomics."

The chairman of Roubini Macro Associates explained that the current surge in economic growth won’t last because an “unsustainable” fiscal stimulus will evolve into a "fiscal drag."

Roubini also echoed many of the same themes that appeared in a recent op-ed written for Project Syndicate with fellow economist Brunello Rosa.

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Goldman Sachs predicts that the U.S. economy stands only a "muted" chance of plunging into recession in the near future and a "below average" likelihood during the next three years.
goldman, recession, risk, economy
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2018-12-02
Tuesday, 02 October 2018 05:12 PM
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