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Gary Shilling: 'President' Trump Would Boost Dollar, Bonds but Sink Stocks

Image: Gary Shilling: 'President' Trump Would Boost Dollar, Bonds but Sink Stocks

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Monday, 07 Nov 2016 12:02 PM

 

 

Gary Shilling, economist and founder of research firm A. Gary Shilling Co., predicted that a Donald Trump White House would have a mixed bag of effects on the financial markets.

“A Trump win might be bad for stocks, but it would be very positive for the dollar and Treasurys,” he told Business Insider.

“Now, that sounds ridiculous on the surface, because here’s this loose cannon who’s unpredictable. But that’s the point. He is so unpredictable that foreigners are going to look around and say "boy, we’ve got to head for the safe havens." And one of the safe havens is Treasurys and [another is] the dollar,” he said.

“We’ve seen that in the past that where you’ve had uncertainty, and even where the Fed is raising rates, Treasurys rise as everybody heads for safety,” he said.

But overall, Shilling said it’ impossible to even speculate what the market will be like under each candidate.


“Let’s say Trump wins. Is Congress going to let him build a wall on the Mexican border? I don’t think so. Yes, we’re in a protectionist era because when you have lack of domestic growth, everybody tries to unload the problem on foreigners with protectionism, devaluations, cutbacks on imports. But is there going to be a dramatic change? TPP is dead anyway, and similar deals in the eurozone are going nowhere,” he said.
 

“And if Hillary is elected, is she going to be able to jack up taxes with virtually no deductions, and include capital gains? Unless democrats have a clean sweep of Congress, I don’t think that’s going to happen either,” he said.


 

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Gary Shilling, economist and founder of research firm A. Gary Shilling Co., predicted that a Donald Trump White House would have a mixed bag of effects on the financial markets.
gary shilling, donald trump, dollar, stocks
268
2016-02-07
Monday, 07 Nov 2016 12:02 PM
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