Tags: Fisher | Stocks | Obama | gains

Ken Fisher: Bet on Stocks, Despite Obama

Monday, 10 Oct 2011 01:20 PM

The GOP is overestimating its chances of unseating Barack Obama come 2012, says money manager and bestselling author Ken Fisher. It doesn’t matter, though: Presidential elections often lead to stock gains no which party ends up in the White House, he writes in Forbes magazine.

Expect stocks to pop in 2012, he contends. They have risen in 17 of 21 election years in the history of the S&P 500, averaging a nearly 11 percent total return.

Putting a Democrat in office returned 14.8 percent and a Republican brought 18.8 percent, on average, Fisher reports.
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“Either way investors win. The process itself increases optimism, and that boosts stocks,” he writes.

obamagetty200flag2.jpg
President Barack Obama
(Getty Images photo)
History suggests that Obama’s approval rating is just a few points shy of sealing the win, Fisher notes. Ronald Reagan, he points out, was in the same territory ahead of his re-election vote and won a second term handily.

“It’s tougher to beat an incumbent than you think. Since the inception of Standard & Poor’s benchmark stock index in 1925, presidents have sought another term 14 times. Only four failed, and these losers were weak,” Fisher writes.

For now, economists across the board seem to have reached a consensus that the United States isn’t likely to face another big downdraft in the short term. But that doesn’t mean things are getting better.

“The U.S. economy doesn’t look like it’s double-dipping at all,” Allen Sinai, president of Decision Economics in New York told Bloomberg News. “But it is a crummy recovery.”

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The GOP is overestimating its chances of unseating Barack Obama come 2012, says money manager and bestselling author Ken Fisher. It doesn t matter, though: Presidential elections often lead to stock gains no which party ends up in the White House, he writes in Forbes...
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2011-20-10
Monday, 10 Oct 2011 01:20 PM
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