Get ready to wave goodbye to the Draghi put.
Stock investors are weaning themselves off reliance on the European Central Bank’s ability to put a floor on markets, pushing corporate health to center stage instead. This year, an earnings revival has been enough to lure dip buyers facing a potential shift in monetary policy. The Euro Stoxx 50 Index is up 6.4 percent in 2017 and some $23 billion have flown into funds tracking the region.
It’s a coming-of-age moment for a market that has been hooked on ECB President Mario Draghi’s every word since he pledged five years ago to do whatever it takes to save the bloc. While equities may be moving on higher debt yields or the euro, it’s nothing like the blanket panic that sank German shares amid a bond selloff a few months after the central bank began quantitative easing.
As ECB officials meet this week to discuss stimulus measures, cues from the central bank no longer remain the dominant supporting factor for the region’s equity markets. Stocks have risen amid increasing optimism over economic expansion and analyst predictions for double-digit earnings growth in 2017, following years of stagnation.
“There’s some nervousness around policy uncertainty, but European stocks have done pretty well without the need for a Draghi put lately,” said Daniel Murray, head of research at EFG Asset Management in London. “While a strong euro could be a headwind, the market has so far found support in macro data and earnings.”
For stocks, QE came at a tricky time. The accommodative program ran in the face of crises such as Greece’s credit impasse and China’s currency devaluation, as well as tighter policy from the Federal Reserve. It also followed six interest-rate cuts that had already helped buoy markets during the sovereign-debt crisis.
While the Fed’s asset-purchase plan years earlier helped rekindle risk appetite among U.S. equity investors, with the gains making the shares more expensive, a similar unleashing of animal spirits didn’t happen in Europe. The region’s biggest equities remain cheaper than when the ECB first began buying bonds, trading at a lower earnings multiple than members of the MSCI All-Country World Index.
Draghi’s words still matter, as was evident just last month, when the Euro Stoxx 50 suffered its worst decline since Brexit on speculation that he’d turned more hawkish. And any major moves in the euro are likely to affect earnings prospects -- the currency’s recent gains have prompted four straight weeks of profit downgrades.
With economists predicting the ECB will probably wait until September before slowing the pace of bond-buying, investors will focus on any change in policy language at the July meeting. The rate decision and Draghi’s press conference are due Thursday.
“The Draghi effect is no longer essential, but he’ll need to work it out of the market very carefully,” said Francois Savary, who helps oversee about $3.1 billion as chief investment officer of Prime Partners in Geneva. “Investors have been used to help from the ECB for years.”
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