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Mobius: Emerging Markets Recovery Within 14 Months

Wednesday, 01 Oct 2008 11:27 AM

Mark Mobius, executive chairman of Templeton Asset Management, says emerging stock markets should rebound soon, as economies in those markets are largely unaffected by the U.S. financial crisis.

"Bear markets generally do not last more than 14 months in the emerging market arena," Mobius said in a question-and-answer session on FT.com.

"We therefore believe that the markets will price in the relative absence of credit crisis risk [in Brazil, Russia, India and China] within that time period. This should also be true for other emerging markets."

In the short term, emerging markets aren't immune from the woes afflicting their more developed brethren, Mobius acknowledges.

That's because capital is flowing around the world faster and in greater amounts than ever before, he says.

In addition, the explosion of world trade in recent years has tied emerging and developed markets together.

The MSCI Emerging Markets stock index dropped 23 percent in the first eight months of the year.

But that shouldn't last, Mobius argues.

"Emerging markets may react in the short term to something happening in the United States, but within a short period of time, local influences will take precedence."

Mobius notes that emerging markets outperformed developed ones in recent years. The MSCI Emerging Markets index surged an annualized 25 percent in the five years through August, compared to a 7 percent gain for G-7 markets.

To be sure, if the United States fails to adopt a bank bailout package, emerging economies may experience a "significant slowdown," as U.S. demand for imports from these economies slows, Benjamin Tal, senior economist at CIBC World Markets, told The Toronto Globe & Mail.

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Mark Mobius, executive chairman of Templeton Asset Management, says emerging stock markets should rebound soon, as economies in those markets are largely unaffected by the U.S. financial crisis."Bear markets generally do not last more than 14 months in the emerging market...
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2008-27-01
Wednesday, 01 Oct 2008 11:27 AM
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