The Federal Reserve has something in common with the NFL’s replacement officials, says Pimco CEO Mohamed El-Erian — expectations that are too high.
“The dilemma for the Fed is like what everybody's having with the replacement officials in the NFL,” he tells CNBC.
“We know they [the football referees] are not first best. They are second or third best, but we expect them to be perfect.”
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It’s the same with the Fed. “We know the Fed doesn't have the right tools to deal with the problems,” El-Erian says. “They need help from other government entities. But other government entities are literally on strike.”
So, the Fed has to make do trying to bring the economy back to life by itself. “But the expectations are so high that the Fed is not going to be able to deliver on economic outcomes,” El-Erian says.
The central bank has just begun a third round of quantitative easing (QE), but most economists think fiscal action is necessary to boost the economy.
Many of them recommend fiscal stimulus for the short term, whether it’s through tax cuts or spending hikes, and fiscal austerity for the long term to reduce the budget deficit.
But the abdication of economic-policy responsibility from the White House and Congress means the Fed will have to ease even more, El-Erian says.
Indeed, Goldman Sachs estimates that when all is said and done, QE3 may cost the Fed $2 trillion, according to CNNMoney.
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