During the 20th century, the world went through more than twenty iterations of economic crises. Enter the 21st century, and we have already witnessed around three different phases of recession.
The impact of an economic crash is no longer confined to one region.
If the U.S. market falls, the whole world will suffer. Even the recent Chinese stock market crash had its impact felt across the globe. Every time the market goes down, emergency measures are taken to restore the balance.
It doesn’t matter if it takes a year or a decade for the global economy to get back on its feet, the chances of it falling back are always there.
So, nearly 10 years after the last recession, how long until we are hit with yet another wave of losses, inflation, unemployment, bankruptcy and all the vices of a failed economy?
For an average person, it may feel too far away to be worried; the fuel prices are under control, the housing market looks lucrative, small businesses are flourishing, and the stock market is performing well.
However, it is all just a bubble we are living in and the thing about bubbles is that they are bound to burst. One just needs a glimpse of the pre 2008 economic landscape to know that we are on the brink of the next crises.
It holds true for any region of the world, be it the U.S., the EU, or the fast emerging economies of Asia. Let’s put the whole economic scene under the microscope for a moment and take a look at what is really happening around the globe.
The year 2016 started with the collapse of commodities and just two months ago, the Global Financial Stability report published by the IMF expressed concerns regarding the financial future.
Not to mention, the shaky political scene is also playing its role in delaying necessary measures to overcome foreseeable risks. One factor that is always overlooked before it sparks a crisis is the debt.
As the IMF reports, the combined debt outside the financial sector is at its all-time high.
The borrowers will keep borrowing and are likely to lose their ability to pay off the debt, putting lenders and the overall economic cycle in a critical situation.
While it seems that big banks are doing well, lenders and investors have actually lost faith in those institution.
In the U.S. particularly, the stock prices of the big banks are low, which means in case of crises they may not even be able to save themselves by liquidating the assets like last time.
What makes it all worse is the speculated impact of the USA president-elect’s trade policies.
Like any policy that works as a slow poison for the economy, his policies to lower taxes and eliminate regulations seem to please the general public and local businesses.
However, it is all just likely to bring about a temporary phase of prosperity while in actual it will just expedite a recession, and one day we may all wake up to the sound of crumbling economy sooner than we know.
Mayur Ramgir (www.mayurramgir.com) is founder and CEO of Zonopact Inc., creator of the Clintra cloud-based software platform. He has more than 14 years experience in software engineering and holds a Computational Science and Engineering degree from Georgia Tech. He also is author of “Unbarred Innovation: A Pathway to Greatest Discoveries.”
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