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The Next Recession Will Originate in China

The Next Recession Will Originate in China

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Wednesday, 25 November 2015 07:00 AM Current | Bio | Archive

U.S. third quarter GDP growth’s second estimate gave us an upward revision from 1.5 percent to 2.1 percent, which resulted in 2.2 percent on a yearly basis.

The data remind us that the U.S. economy continuous being driven by domestic demand.

All by all, the U.S. economy continues to grow at a pace the Fed needs for a liftoff within 3 weeks.

The fact that the U.S. economy remains mainly driven by domestic demand shields it, at least so far and of course only in part from lackluster global growth that remains in the doldrums.

The “independent” and well-respected CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Analysis just released its updated data for world trade volume and world industrial production. Unfortunately, the data don’t show any “green shoots” you can depend on, especially we look at the trade momentum on a 12 months basis that came in at plus 1.1 percent in September, but down from 1.8 percent in August.

The loss of momentum was mainly caused by a loss of momentum in emerging economies in Asia and Central- and Eastern Europe.

Global production momentum came in unchanged at 0.5 percent in September where momentum of the advanced economies turned positive for the first time in five months notwithstanding Japan momentum turned more negative. In Latin America, momentum has now remained negative since December 2014.

These data are important for long-term investors for the very simple reason because "if", and it still remains a big if, these momentums don't become definitively better over the next 12 months or so, the U.S. could become at risk of contagion caused by a "likely" new global recession.

As said before, the U.S., because of its domestic demand driven economy remains shielded, albeit only in part and for a limited time, from another global recession, but if that would occur, the U.S. would probably not remain immune and that could push the U.S. back into recession in or around 2017.

Please take care, we aren’t there yet, no, not by a long shot, but we remain too close for being reassuring, especially for making long-term investment decisions.

In addition, if all that wasn’t enough we also just got China’s first early indicators on how its economy is performing.

The just released China industrial production Minxin PMI (jointly compiled by China Minsheng Banking Corp. and the China Academy of New Supply-side Economics) declined to 42.4 in November, down from 43.3 in October, hereby remaining in contraction territory.

As I have said here before, “the next recession will originate in China.” It certainly looks to me the Chinese economy hasn’t bottomed yet and the downward pressures remain well in place notwithstanding Chinese authorities have now cut six times interest rates over the last 12 months. Overcapacity continues weighing on their economy and the “old” stimuli of manufacturing and construction aren’t doing the job they once did.

The MNI China Business Sentiment Indicator, a gauge of current business sentiment, also fell 10.3 percent in November to 49.9, down from 55.6 in October, hereby slipping for the second time this year below the 50 neutral level. New Orders and Production also fell by 6.6 percent and 4.2 percent respectively in November.

All this doesn’t bode well for global growth in the near to median future as the only global growth engine that counts is China.

Many investors have also, at least until now, shrugged off the “real” geopolitical risks that are staring us in the face.

As a long term investor I would ask myself if that’s the wise attitude when I have to make investment/portfolio decisions.

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HansParisis
Please take care, we aren’t there yet, no, not by a long shot, but we remain too close for being reassuring, especially for making long-term investment decisions.
economy, gdp, investor, rate
597
2015-00-25
Wednesday, 25 November 2015 07:00 AM
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