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Rosenberg: Bond Rally Will Go On for Two More Years

Friday, 24 Sep 2010 01:36 PM

The bond rally will last for another two years, said David Rosenberg, chief economist of Gluskin Sheff, an investment firm.

Investors should remain long on bonds for several reasons, he said.

"In this postbubble credit collapse, everything is mean reverting from P/E ratios, to savings rates, to debt/income ratios, to homeownership rates and the process is going to take more time and extract more domestic demand growth and pricing power out of the economy,” Rosenberg said.

Previous interest-rate cycles have lasted long periods, he said.

“We could be looking at a bottom roughly two years from now. So we wouldn’t quibble with the view that the secular bull market in bonds is in the mature stage. But it ain’t over yet,” Rosenberg said.

Bond prices have reacted positively with the prospect that interest rates will remain low, Reuters reported.

“The Fed will need to keep monetary policy exceptionally accommodative until at least 2013 if it is to have a chance of achieving price stability and maximum sustainable employment," said John Higgins at Capital Economics Markets.

The stock market may continue to tick upwards as the high-yield debt rally continues, Christopher Verrone, lead technical analyst at Strategas Research Partners, said in a report.

“Bullish things are happening under the surface and around us. I wouldn’t be surprised if the market challenged the high it hit in April,” he told Bloomberg.

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The bond rally will last for another two years, said David Rosenberg, chief economist of Gluskin Sheff, an investment firm. Investors should remain long on bonds for several reasons, he said. In this postbubble credit collapse, everything is mean reverting from P/E...
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Friday, 24 Sep 2010 01:36 PM
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