Tags: Dalio | Fed | rate | inflation

Bridgewater's Dalio: Fed Caution on Rate Hikes Warranted

By    |   Wednesday, 01 October 2014 01:18 PM

Most Federal Reserve officials have shown no inclination to rush the central bank's first interest-rate increase, which many economists expect around the middle of next year.

And Ray Dalio, founder of the world's biggest hedge fund firm, Bridgewater Associates, thinks the Fed has it right.

"If I were running monetary policy, I'd wait to see for the whites of the eyes of inflation," he told CNBC. The Fed should be in tune with market expectations on rates.

The central bank has an inflation target of 2 percent. Its favored inflation gauge, the personal consumption expenditures price index, climbed 1.5 percent in the 12 months through August.

The Fed has kept its federal funds rate target at a record low of zero to 0.25 percent since December 2008.

Dalio isn't enthusiastic about financial assets, expecting returns of "only about 4 percent" for stocks.

But, "I see no real reason for a problem in the United States now other than too tight monetary policy," he said. "And I don't think you'll get to too tight of monetary policy.

"My real concern is when the next downturn comes, which probably won't be for another couple of years . . . 18 months,"

Harvard economist Martin Feldstein disagrees with Dalio on Fed policy. Inflation is headed higher, and that means the central bank should and likely will raise interest rates more quickly than Fed officials have recently indicated, he writes in an article for Project Syndicate.

"I would not be surprised by a continued rise in the inflation rate in 2015. In that case, the Fed is likely to raise the federal funds rate more rapidly and to a higher year-end [2015] level than its recent statements imply."

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Most Federal Reserve officials have shown no inclination to rush the central bank's first interest-rate increase, which many economists expect around the middle of next year.
Dalio, Fed, rate, inflation
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2014-18-01
Wednesday, 01 October 2014 01:18 PM
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