Tags: Cohen | September | Stocks

Cohen: September Could be Decent for Stocks

Thursday, 01 Sep 2011 07:37 AM

September, a month when stocks traditionally dip, might not be so bad this year because August was so volatile, says Goldman Sachs Senior Strategist Abby Joseph Cohen.

Geopolitical events such as debt woes in the U.S. and Europe prompted many financial institutions to cut their 2011 growth estimates, thus sparking a wild ride in global equities markets.

"As we know, most economists did dramatically reduce their growth expectation not just for 2011 but also for 2012, and they did it in the month of August," Cohen tells CNBC.

But many might not have given enough weight to good news over the summer, such as improvements in private-sector hiring, strong earnings and strong durable goods orders.

That means the Standard and Poor's 500 broad stock index could climb to 1,450 by year end from current levels of around 1,200.

Furthermore, monetary policy officials in Europe have said they are growing more comfortable with inflation levels across the Atlantic, which could be good for the United States.

"The U.S. economy is very much linked to Europe," Cohen says.

"Outside of our close-by neighbors in North America, most U.S. exports go to continental Europe. So if continental Europe is weak, they will not be demanding the same level of exports."

Many famous stock-market crashes have taken place between Labor Day and Halloween, including the Lehman collapse of 2008 and the October crash in 1987, which had its roots in August.

The 1929 crash took place in October but began in September as did other crashes throughout history.

Nobody knows why.

"There haven't been any good academic stories to explain it," says Michael Cooper, finance professor at the University of Utah's David Eccles School of Business, The Wall Street Journal reports.

"One credible explanation is just luck."

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September, a month when stocks traditionally dip, might not be so bad this year because August was so volatile, says Goldman Sachs Senior Strategist Abby Joseph Cohen. Geopolitical events such as debt woes in the U.S. and Europe prompted many financial institutions to cut...
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Thursday, 01 Sep 2011 07:37 AM
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