China’s economy isn’t growing as fast as it was several years ago, but investors shouldn’t worry that the country is in trouble, says Byron Wien, chairman of Blackstone Advisory Partners.
“Business in China goes on. The consumer sector continues to grow in importance in the overall economy,”
he says in an opinion piece for Real Clear Markets. “The government is still engaged in fiscal spending and monetary accommodation but the economic planning officials recognize that the future depends on consumers becoming an increasingly larger portion of GDP.”
China’s slowing economy, which is the second biggest after the U.S., was partly blamed for the more than 10 percent decline in the S&P 500 earlier this year.
Chinese gross domestic product grew by 6.7 percent in the first quarter from a year earlier. That rate was in line with a 2015 expansion of 6.9 percent, which was the slowest in 25 years.
The weakening growth can be expected to happen in a maturing economy that is trying to transition from a dependence on heavy industry and factory exports to mass consumerism, Wien says.
“The Chinese consumer is currently a smaller part of its economy than the consumer in any major industrialized nation, and rebalancing has a long way to go,” he says. “If growth in China were closer to 5% than 7%, is that so bad? China will still be able to create ten million or more jobs annually.”
Wien also acknowledges that China has significant problems, including too much factory capacity in basic industries, exploding debt, rising loan defaults and an aging population.
“China has weak retirement support for its aging population and has no universal healthcare,” Wien says. “Consumers save as much as 50 percent of their income so they have the resources to deal with unexpected circumstances. This affects growth, and few involved in China expect these conditions to change in the near term.”
The country's aging population and low fertility rates may pressure the country’s long-term economic health, according to data compiled by HSBC global economist James Pomeroy.
The fertility rate for China and Russia is about the same, at around 1.6 births per woman, according
to the HSBC data cited by Business Insider.
The country's median age is projected to be above 40 eight years from now, and Pomeroy writes it may be at least another 10 years before China becomes a rich nation.
Related Stories:
© 2024 Newsmax Finance. All rights reserved.