Tags: bond | rally | investors | fed

Bond Rally May Have Just Begun, Say Investors Reeling After Fed

Bond Rally May Have Just Begun, Say Investors Reeling After Fed
(Yong-hian-Lim/Dreamstime)

Wednesday, 19 December 2018 11:52 PM EST

 Treasuries have further to rally in the wake of the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting and plunging stock markets are signaling a greater chance of recession.

Those are two of the key takeaways from finance professionals who posited markets are becoming increasingly worried that those in charge are making a policy error. Here are comments from interviews with fund managers and strategists from Boston to Sydney after the Fed dialed back projections for economic growth in 2019 on Wednesday.

Charles Schwab, Jeffrey Kleintop

“The stock market is recognizing the heightened risk of recession. You’ve got to ask, even if we did get some kind of a resolution of the U.S.-China trade issue by March and some resolution of Brexit, is that enough to turn things around? The big moves this year have been tied to Fed policy and this focus on financial conditions. It’s the Fed that really holds the key the overall market and economic direction in 2019.”

He’s underweight emerging market equity and debt and has a preference for Treasuries. He’s watching the spread between the yield on 10-year and three-month Treasuries, saying it’s a good predictor of impending recessions, and he’s boosted bets that bonds will rally.

“We’ve extended duration on the feeling that longer term rates have already seen their peak at around 3.25 percent on the 10-year Treasury bond. That’s coming down and may continue to come down over the course of 2019 and so not only do you get a 2-3 percent yield, roughly, in that intermediate term duration part of the curve, but you may also get the price appreciation as yields continue to fall.”

BlackRock, Jeffrey Rosenberg

What markets are showing us “is really concern. Concern that the Fed is not being responsive enough in terms of the financial conditions tightening.”

“They are disappointed and they’re worried that the Fed missed the opportunity to halt the negative risk tone across all markets.

“There’s a strong desire by the Fed, as Powell reiterated here, to not let the balance sheet became an active tool of monetary policy. And there’s a good reason for that, because they don’t know how to calibrate that tool.”

Antares Capital, Tano Pelosi

“There’s a real risk of a policy misstep here by the Fed, that there’s a policy error. The Fed is very much focused on the real economy yet many of the indicators they’re looking at tend to move quite slowly -- the unemployment rate and unemployment claims, for example. Yet when we look at forefront gauges like high-yield spreads and yield curves, they tend to be signalling a recession. Because the Fed will be responsive, they’ll probably avert it in 2019.

“We’ve seen the peak of Treasury yields.”

“It’s still too early to go long in risk markets particularly when you think about the uncertainty that will unfold in 2019. The carry trades that were popular in the last few years, I think there are clear open questions now on whether they can continue.” He likes Australian bonds and says the nation’s 10-year bonds should outperform shorter-dated debt.

Guggenheim, Scott Minerd

“All of these nuanced comments are telling us, they are going to keep tightening. As the curve keeps flattening on us, it’s telling us that monetary policy is being too restrictive and that we don’t have enough reserves in the system to stimulate the economy.”

Well Fargo, Brendan McKenna

He favors the Mexican peso and the Brazilian real. And expects emerging-market currencies to struggle in a scenario of two Fed hikes next year due to slowing global economic growth, an environment typically not favoring emerging-market currencies.

© Copyright 2025 Bloomberg News. All rights reserved.


StreetTalk
Treasuries have further to rally in the wake of the Federal Reserve's policy meeting and plunging stock markets are signaling a greater chance of recession.
bond, rally, investors, fed
600
2018-52-19
Wednesday, 19 December 2018 11:52 PM
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