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Bull Trap to Hamper Year-End Equities Rally: Technical Analysis

Friday, 10 Dec 2010 09:35 AM

Dec. 8 (Bloomberg) -- Equity markets may disregard expectations for further gains in coming weeks as movements in currencies suggest rising risk in stocks, according to a technical analyst at ING Groep NV.

“The majority of retail investors are talking about year- end rallies, bull markets and so on,” Amsterdam-based Roelof- Jan van den Akker wrote in an e-mailed comment today. “Risks of a sudden trend reversal resulting into a sharp sell-off are out there as the opposite is happening, a classic bull trap in equities.”

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index rose 0.2 percent to 274.57 as of 11:26 a.m. in London. The benchmark gauge, which climbed to the highest level since September 2008 yesterday after President Barack Obama approved the extension of Bush-era tax cuts, fell for the first month in three in November.

“It is all about the euro/dollar,” van den Akker said in an interview, as “a higher dollar suggests lower commodities and thus lower equities.” He expects the euro to decline below Dec. 3’s low of $1.3193, “confirming the likelihood of a decline towards $1.2970 and below to our price target at $1.2600. This would be very bearish for stocks.”

Van den Akker also noted that “a reversal in stocks occurred in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index above 1,230 yesterday,” while futures on the DAX Index expiring this month are set to post “a first drop to the rising 50-day moving average line around 6,700-6,650 in the coming days, with a next drop to 6,400-6,350 thereafter,” he wrote.

In technical analysis, investors and analysts study charts of trading patterns and prices to predict changes in a security, commodity, currency or index.

--Editors: Jason Carey, Andrew Rummer.

To contact the reporter on this story: Francesca Cinelli in Milan at fcinelli@bloomberg.net.

To contact the editor responsible for this story: David Merritt at dmerritt1@bloomberg.net.

© Copyright 2017 Bloomberg News. All rights reserved.

   
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Dec. 8 (Bloomberg) -- Equity markets may disregard expectations for further gains in coming weeks as movements in currencies suggest rising risk in stocks, according to a technical analyst at ING Groep NV. “The majority of retail investors are talking about year- end...
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Friday, 10 Dec 2010 09:35 AM
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