Tags: atlanta | fed | gdp | estimate

Atlanta, NY Fed Lower GDP Growth Estimate to Below 2%

Atlanta, NY Fed Lower GDP Growth Estimate to Below 2%
(Mateusz Zogala/Dreamstime)

Friday, 02 August 2019 01:51 PM

The U.S. economy likely will grow at a 1.9% annualized rate in the third quarter, based on the latest data on domestic payrolls, trade and factory orders, the Atlanta Federal Reserve’s GDPNow forecast model showed on Friday.

This was weaker than the 2.2% pace estimated by the Atlanta Fed’s GDP program on Thursday.

Meanwhile, the New York Federal Reserve’s Nowcast model showed that the U.S. economy is growing more slowly in the third quarter than previously thought based on this week’s data releases on manufacturing and import/export prices. 

The model’s third-quarter gross domestic product is running at a 1.56% annualized rate, down from a 2.21% pace calculated by the N.Y. Fed model the week ago.

To be sure, U.S. job growth slowed in July and manufacturers slashed hours for workers, which together with an escalation in trade tensions between the United States and China could give the Federal Reserve ammunition to cut interest rates again next month.

The Labor Department’s closely watched monthly employment report on Friday came a day after President Donald Trump announced an additional 10% tariff on $300 billion worth of Chinese imports starting Sept. 1, a move that led financial markets to fully price in a rate cut in September.

The U.S. central bank on Wednesday cut its short-term interest rate for the first time since 2008. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell described the widely anticipated 25-basis-point monetary policy easing as insurance against downside risks to the 10-year old economic expansion, the longest in history, from trade tensions and slowing global growth.

“Fed officials don’t exactly have mud in their eyes after cutting interest rates this week as job growth is slowing with the rest of the world,” said Chris Rupkey, chief economist at MUFG in New York. “We see nothing in today’s report to stop a second rate cut next month.”

Nonfarm payrolls increased by 164,000 jobs last month, the government said. The economy created 41,000 fewer jobs in May and June than previously reported. July’s job gains were in line with economists’ expectations.

Underscoring the moderation in hiring, the average workweek fell to its lowest level in nearly two years in July as manufacturers cut hours for workers. Hours were also reduced in other industries, contributing to the workweek’s drop to 34.3 hours, the fewest since September 2017, from 34.4 hours in June.

© 2019 Thomson/Reuters. All rights reserved.

   
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The U.S. economy likely will grow at a 1.9% annualized rate in the third quarter, based on the latest data on domestic payrolls, trade and factory orders, the Atlanta Federal Reserve’s GDPNow forecast model showed on Friday.
atlanta, fed, gdp, estimate
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2019-51-02
Friday, 02 August 2019 01:51 PM
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