The Dow was down 300 points, and this time it closed near the lows of the day. Other indicators were down even more on a percentage basis.
However, under the “new volatility paradigm,” such a move is not unusual.
Bulls take comfort that this is a normal test of the earlier low within the context of an ongoing bull market.
This writer expects the authorities to engineer a year-end rally, virtually promised by Janet Yellen, and that the market will benefit from seasonal strength through the first five days of 2016.
Third-quarter earnings will be digested in the meantime, and the market will know whether the Fed will have raised interest rates a mere 25 basis points in the face of further entreaties by the IMF not to do so.
Perhaps the most intriguing feature of Monday was the entry into the discourse of phrases like “credit event” and “counterparty exposure.”
This writer has thought for some time that the Treasury and Fed will need to keep the expansion going through the election, as they did in 1988 but failed to do in 2008.
Glencore Xstrata, and Anglo-Swiss mining company many people had barely heard of, fell another 30% to 74, and commentators suddenly started to wonder whether it will be “the next Lehman.”
VP of OCBC Bank, reacted to pessimistic remarks by Carl Icahn, who was scheduled to speak more on Tuesday. Menon holds out hope that the Fed bubble won’t burst.
On the other hand, Chief Market Technician Carter Braxton Worth
presented five charts that support his view that the bull market is dead, because it no longer features generally rising prices and major sectors and indices in uptrend, and he shows that this market has broken its uptrend.
In response to Melissa Lee, Worth said the most vulnerable stocks are the strongest and weakest.
who specializes in Asian equities, which he thinks are safer than US stocks, credited Glencore with avoiding imminent failure by raising capital recently, and he thinks US markets will benefit from Fed action to raise interest rates.
Andrew Sullivan, of Haitong, adds that unlike Lehman, Glencore has assets to sell.
This writer notes that if necessary, the Fed could buy them. Sullivan told Martin Soong that “since the Fed started printing all that money, markets have been living in a ‘cuckooland,’”
He argued, “At some point we have to let some companies go bust, so that the good companies can actually do well. There are companies in every industry that shouldn’t be operating but are able to get money because of low interest rates.”
CEO of U.S. Global Investors, warns that a Glencore failure “could have a global impact” because of its derivatives exposure, and he confirmed for Soong that, “This could be the name that pulls the entire market down.”
This is because, “They’re very sophisticated (traders), so they’ve always leveraged themselves to get those high returns.”
He asserted that for the Fed to raise rates against this background “could be catastrophic.”
of Fat Prophets, is optimistic that Glencore can be restructured. The next link is to a recommendation by Paul Gait, of Sanford Bernstein, of Glencore in August at 170.
In the next two clips, technician David Guppy
on Street Smart displays bearish charts of Glencore as it trades in London and Hong Kong, and Dennis Gartman,
publisher of The Gartman Letter, has turned bullish of wheat, gold, and oil.
Former Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher
explicitly predicts that the weakness in commodities “will not dissuade the Fed from moving,” given that second quarter numbers were “much stronger than anybody expected.”
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