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Tags: Federal Reserve | Policy | Risk | Stock Market

Fed Policy Remains 'Extremely Dovish'

Fed Policy Remains 'Extremely Dovish'
(Dollar Photo Club)

By    |   Thursday, 10 September 2015 11:26 AM EDT

The equity markets Wednesday gave up about a third of the gains of the previous day as they sought to find their footing ahead of a much-hyped meeting of the FOMC and the prospect of a year-end rally sponsored by the Federal Reserve.

Mary Nicola,
of Aviva Investors, predicted the Fed will adopt “a very dovish hike, as oxymoronic as that may sound,” and the market will be calmed by the fact that the Fed merely gets off zero and takes “a very measured approach” to future rate hikes.

Nicola stressed that the raise would represent recognition that “emergency conditions” are no longer needed and the economy is “doing OK.”

She cited remarks by Fed Vice Chair Stanley Fischer that if the Fed were focusing just on inflation, it would be easing, but unemployment is down to 5.1%. She characterized the message of the expected action as “extremely dovish.”

This writer would point out that Nicola’s comments imply that if the Fed doesn’t raise rates by even the expected token amount, it will send an even more dovish message, that the U.S. is still in the emergency of 2008.

Patrick Chovanec, Chief Strategist at Silvercrest Asset Management, who lives in China, stated on CNBC that, pending earnings, the three factors behind US markets are “China, oil, and the Fed.”

Markets are still trying to sort out the winners and losers from developments in China. He expected anticipation of next Wednesday’s FOMC meeting to produce continued volatility, because “even the members of the FOMC don’t know what the decision is going to be.”

He added that the first increase “won’t have a meaningful impact” and further increases will not occur “until the FOMC sees that the US economy is really on a solid foundation.”

Susan Li reminded Chovanec that the IMF and World Bank, with the World Bank’s Chief Economist speaking, have urged the Fed to hold off.

On China, Chovanec found “a gap between the reform rhetoric and the reality of policy making in China, which tends to be ‘how do we keep the market up, and how do we keep growth high’?”

He concluded that “the devaluation was a misstep, and attempts to hold up the stock market have been counterproductive at best, and yet they continue to try to do those things.”

This writer would suggest that a cynic might say the Chinese are aligned with the Fed’s policies of boosting stocks and “simulating” the economy.

Guy Adami likes Netflix (NFLX) at about 99 based on prospects for international growth, with 95 as “a line in the sand,” and Pete Najarian agrees, but Tim Seymour sees “tons of competition and a valuation that doesn’t make sense in a market that’s very scared about valuation.”

Victor Anthony,
of Axiom Capital Management, returned to say he thinks Yahoo (YHOO) will proceed with the tax-free spinoff of Alibaba (BABA) based on advice of counsel, that investors are overlooking a $9 billion potential tax liability, but it will help Marissa Mayer’s job security.

Technician Rich Ross likes the chart of Freeport-McMoRan (FCX), off 85%, with Icahn interest.

A half -hour before Wednesday’s close, Alan Valdes, of DME Securities, told CNBC’s Bill Griffeth that he remains “uncommitted to this market” based on uncertainty about Fed action, concerned that inaction will mean the economy is weaker than traders think.

In the last clip, Peter Costa, of Empire Executions, thinks the Fed will be cautious, because “there’s a lot of risk in this market, and you have to be very careful.”

Margie Patel, of Wells Fargo Asset Management, thinks equity values are still being supported by low interest rates.

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The equity markets gave up about a third of the gains of the previous day as they sought to find their footing ahead of a much-hyped meeting of the FOMC and the prospect of a year-end rally sponsored by the Federal Reserve.
Federal Reserve, Policy, Risk, Stock Market
Thursday, 10 September 2015 11:26 AM
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