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Key Short Seller Fleckstein: Beware 'Pretty Nasty Decline'

Image: Key Short Seller Fleckstein: Beware 'Pretty Nasty Decline'
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By    |   Friday, 18 Sep 2015 08:25 AM

Bill Fleckenstein, of Fleckenstein Capital, warns the markets are “starting to deteriorate because the Fed hasn’t printed any money in a year,” and he thinks both the Fed and the markets are trapped due to insufficient dollar liquidity.

He charges that the Fed’s plan for the economy isn’t working. “They’re just misallocating mountains of capital as they did with prior bubbles,” he told CNBC.

"The market is trapped because the Fed is trapped," Fleckenstein said. "The Fed's policies drove the stock market to 2,100 on the S&P, they haven't printed any new money in a year. The market's hung on, and now it's starting to deteriorate."

"Not hiking isn't the same as more free money," he said, adding that "the big problem that we face, despite the fact that everyone is in love with the Fed, is that the Fed is the problem."

"Everyone thinks the market is going to right itself," he said. "My view is the market's going to head down and it continues to be uniquely vulnerable."

He went on to predict, as this writer has, that one day the market will take over and act on its own.

Therefore, the stage is still set for ‘”a pretty nasty decline,” and he is setting up a short fund that he plans to activate once he thinks the market is reacting as he thinks it will.

When he was asked which specific stocks are on his radar as short candidates, Fleckenstein repeated his August advice. "Intel and some of the suppliers to the Apple food chain," he told CNBC.

Meanwhile, for one who has been following the issue of extraordinary Federal Reserve intervention in managing the economy for eight years, my prediction that the Fed would kick the can down the proverbial road yet again was not difficult.

Now we have the observation by former Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher that a December move is unlikely because of the need to provide time for entities to “window dress” their balance sheets, and one still doubts the Fed will move.

Daniel Morris
, of PNB Paribas, on CNBC pronounced himself surprised that the Fed not only failed to hike rates but failed to balance the dovish inaction with some sort of hawkish message.

This writer was not surprised at all, because during the coming election year the Fed is likely to take additional extraordinary measures and expand its balance sheet further in response to events.

Velentin Marinov, Managing Director at Credit Agricole, warns that the Fed’s inaction could spur more intense global currency wars, and he predicts the ECB might loosen its policy more.

Former House Majority Leader Eric Cantor, Vice Chairman of Moelis & Co., speaking to the Milken Institute in Singapore, said that global concerns, not just the domestic labor market, prompted the Fed’s latest inaction, and he predicts more volatility and uncertainty in coming months as the political season unfolds. He opposes the threatened government shutdown.

Hugh Johnson, of Hugh Johnson Advisors, is another expert who expresses surprise at the message that accompanied the Fed’s inaction, because of its emphasis on global markets.

Victor Shvets, of Macquarie Securities criticized the Yellen Fed for not adequately fulfilling its role as the global central bank by supplying sufficient dollar liquidity to the global economy. At the same time, he calls for the Fed to raise rates all the way to 3-4% in order to normalize rates.

Robert McTeer, Richard Fisher’s predecessor as President of the Dallas Fed, argues that having failed to act yesterday, the Fed should raise rates in October on the ground that “obsession over this is doing major harm to financial markets and participants, and what’s one-quarter point anyway?”

Dan Nathan saw a large trade in the bond ETF (TLT) an hour before the Fed’s announcement, marking a reversal in the consensus on 20-year Treasurys, and he advocates a bullish bond trade.

Finally, technician Carter Braxton Worth, of Cornerstone, advises Milissa Lee and the Fast Money traders that the best response to the Fed’s inaction is to “stick with what’s working and favor growth over value.” This leads him to choose Amazon (AMZN) as the winner from QE.

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Robert-Feinberg
Bill Fleckenstein, of Fleckenstein Capital, says markets are “starting to deteriorate because the Fed hasn’t printed any money in a year.”
federal reserve, cnbc, investors, rates
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2015-25-18
Friday, 18 Sep 2015 08:25 AM
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