Tags: fed | meeting | rates | economy

Will Fed Meeting Make Any Difference?

By    |   Monday, 14 Sep 2015 07:33 AM

Friday turned out to be an uneventful day as traders and pundits continued to fuss over the upcoming meeting of the FOMC that will conclude on Thursday.

Some have called this meeting “momentous,” while others have figured out that it is bound ultimately to be insignificant.

At the outset Art Cashin, of UBS, highlighted the potential that 1937 in the S&P could be an important number that might be violated (it was 1942 as he spoke), and he pointed to Fridays, historically an up day, being “dreadful” this year with about 12 of the last 15 being down days.

Unfortunately, perhaps, Cashin fell into the pattern of looking to financials for leadership.

Technician Todd Gordon presents a chart to illustrate his view of how to trade the dollar ETF (UUP) ahead of this week’s FOMC meeting.

Gordon questions the prevailing view that the dollar is the world’s strongest currency given that the chart shows a downtrend this year, with the real gains having been made last year. He sees an opportunity in shorting options, on the theory that once the meeting is over, volatility and the value of all options will decline.

Dick Kovacevich parlayed a Minnesota regional bank into control of Wells Fargo, one of the top TBTFs and became a leading spokesman for the industry.

On this occasion he contends that failure of the FOMC to act this week “would be disastrous for the confidence people would have in the economy” and that if action is taken it will be greeted with “a big yawn.”

However, he doubts this will happen, because the Fed is “way too cautious; they worry about too many things.” He points to a big picture in which “this is still a massively accommodative monetary policy for the longest period of time in our history.” His main contribution now is to warn that while the Fed continues to strive for a 2% inflation rate, “If it were 2%, I think the economy would be worse.

When you think of all the unused capacity, the Fed has made all of the consumer savings accounts worthless, basically at zero percent,” and consumers, now spending, “would have no discretionary income to spend.” Kovacevich seems to be suggesting that the ultimate destination of this policy, as this writer has suspected, is another bout of stagflation.

Darrell Cronk, of Wells Fargo, and Michelle Meyer, of BofA Merrill Lynch, rehearse with CNBC’s Sara Eisen and Carl Quintanilla the reasons why the Fed is unlikely to raise interest rates, but they miss what might be the overriding fact that the Fed may never be able to end the dependency of the markets on QE-n, least of all in an election year.

Guy Adami thinks the Fed must act “in order to get back any semblance of credibility.” Tim Seymour asks, “What is the Fed afraid of?” This writer suspects the Fed doesn’t want any bubbles to burst for at least a year.

Fast Money’s David Seaburg looks at fast food and says of Shake Shack (SHAK), “When you look at this story, to get to the growth, 450 (stores) is going to take them a long time. This stock is so overvalued, it’s ridiculous; if you own it, I’d be selling it here.”

Guy Adami and Tim Seymour both like McDonald’s (MCD), partly on the basis of its new breakfast menu.

Carter Braxton Worth explains the relationship between Delta (DAL) and crude oil.

Worth lays out a strategy based on a put spread, but his work showing that Delta outperforms its peers may suggest pairing a bullish trade on Delta with a bearish trade on another airline or on an ETF that would be a proxy for the rest of the industry.

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Robert-Feinberg
Friday turned out to be an uneventful day as traders and pundits continued to fuss over the upcoming meeting of the FOMC that will conclude on Thursday. Some have called this meeting “momentous,” while others have figured out that it is bound ultimately to be insignificant.
fed, meeting, rates, economy
621
2015-33-14
Monday, 14 Sep 2015 07:33 AM
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