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Tags: cnbc | fed | hike | economy

Dennis Gartman Turns Bullish on Commodities

Dennis Gartman Turns Bullish on Commodities
(Dollar Photo Club)

By    |   Friday, 04 September 2015 07:53 AM

Dennis Gartman, publisher of The Gartman Letter, predicted that low commodity prices today may surprise the average investor two years from now.

He said a bottom in commodity prices may come within the next few months, if it already hasn't passed.

"I wouldn't be surprised if two years from now we have oil prices higher than where they are right now," he told CNBC.

"I do think that the worst is absolutely behind us because all anyone ever talks about is how awful the commodity market is. I think for the first time in a long time it's proper to be bullish commodities; they may still go down some but I have my severe doubts."

He finds coal prices down 75% and coal stocks down 98% from two years ago, but  "two years from now I think we will be surprised at where commodity prices will be."

Meanwhile, market action was quiet Thursday and some would say market participants were waiting for Friday’s jobs report, although this is probably foolish, because these data are likely to be revised, and sometimes even the sign of the number is changed.

Elias Haddad, Senior Currency Strategist at Commonwealth Bank, told CNBC’s Martin Soong that other recent data “suggest that the nonfarm payrolls number could potentially surprise to the downside and could curtail significant US dollar strength.”

Soong suggested that in such a case the Fed would be less likely to raise interest rates, and Haddad responded that the numbers as a whole are encouraging enough to support a rate increase in December.

He called the ECB’s stance “dovish” and open to increasing its version of QE in a divergence from stated Fed policy but in line with the Bank of Japan.

Chris Tedder, Research Analyst at FOREX.com, agreed that the ECB might do more QE and make the euro less attractive, and the global trend is toward a loosening of monetary policy.

Evariste Lefeuvre, Chief Economist at Nataxis, repeated another comment by Tedder that ECB President Mario Draghi is in a position of being able to talk about more QE without actually having to act.

He thinks Draghi is signaling that the recovery in Europe “is still very weak” and QE could be extended and expanded” into what Lefeuver called “a new phase of QE-Infinity.”

Options Action trader Dan Nathan found that put volume was 1.5 times call volume in the S&P 500 ETF (SPY), and he told Melissa Lee that with options expiring September 18, a day after the FOMC meeting, that trading implies a move of 4%, or $7.50, and traders should use spreads.

CNBC’s Kelly Evans chided Gartman over whether he would stick to this position. Gartman responded that a bottom might take up to four months to form, but “I wouldn’t be surprised if two years from now we have higher oil prices, higher grain prices, and copper, tin, and zinc prices higher than they are right now. We may even have seen the lows already.

Gina Martin Adams, of Wells Fargo Securities, thinks oil may be bottoming and markets are waiting for “some resolution” from a Fed that has been sending mixed signals.

She called the employment report “incredibly important” and recommended traders follow a defensive strategy and “stick with winners” while improving growth drives stocks higher.

Steve Grasso disagrees, calling a rate hike “a recipe for disaster” and accusing the Fed of “pushing us into recession.”

However, technician Rich Ross still likes Apple (AAPL), despite its recent breakdown from a trading range of 120-133, which indicates a drop to 107. He urged investors to consider the bottom 107, even though this never printed, and he expects the stock to reverse to at least 120.

Finally, CNBC’s Steve Liesman asked Treasury Secretary Jack Lew whether the recent market volatility indicates “systemic risk or deeper problems in the US economy, but Lew focused on “continuing signs of strength” in auto sales and “hasn’t seen the kinds of stresses in financial institutions that would cause any immediate concerns, but obviously we’re always watching.”

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Dennis Gartman, publisher of The Gartman Letter, predicted that low commodity prices today may surprise the average investor two years from now.
cnbc, fed, hike, economy
Friday, 04 September 2015 07:53 AM
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